PoliticsMulti-outcomeExpires Nov 3, 2026

Will Bernadette Wilson win the 2026 Alaska governor election?

Probability

26¢

+0.0pp

24h

-4.0pp

24h Vol

$252.91

Liquidity

$19.8K

Probability (last 7 days)

-4.0pp 7d

Apr 18, 2026, 16:00Apr 25, 2026, 15:07

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors

1
Down 4pp over 24h
Now 26¢; flat in the last hour.
2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 4593h with open resolution ambiguity.
3
Thin liquidity
Only $19.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice

0s agoResolve
Market resolves in 4592.9h
LOW
15:07Signal
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 4593h with open resolution ambiguity.
LOW
1d agoPrice
Probability up 4.0pp
to 31¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 4.0pp
to 31¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 4.0pp
to 31¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 4.0pp
to 31¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 4.0pp
to 31¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 4.0pp
to 31¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 4.0pp
to 31¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 5.0pp
to 32¢
MEDIUM
1d agoPrice
Probability up 5.0pp
to 32¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 5.0pp
to 32¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 5.0pp
to 32¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 5.0pp
to 32¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 5.0pp
to 32¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 5.0pp
to 32¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 6.0pp
to 32¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 6.0pp
to 32¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 6.0pp
to 32¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 6.0pp
to 32¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 6.0pp
to 32¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 6.0pp
to 32¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 6.0pp
to 32¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 6.0pp
to 32¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 6.0pp
to 32¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 6.0pp
to 32¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 5.5pp
to 31¢
MEDIUM
2d agoPrice
Probability up 4.0pp
to 31¢
MEDIUM

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

Same eventAlaska Governor Election Winner

Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the 2026 Alaska gubernatorial election currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election are not confirmed by July 31, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in Alaska for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on official certification.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk

End date: Nov 3, 2026
UMA status: n/a
Resolution source: Associated PressNews consensusextracted · medium
Market type: Multi-outcome (neg-risk)

Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.

Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

Deliver

In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).

Top Holders

20 wallets

YES

Open on Polymarket