Grubby-Mall
0xa309f903dbbd559e87d8d368834b8e41355c4cf2
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
12
Open notional
$278.7K
Total PnL
$27.9K
Realised
$2.5K
Win rate
63%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 12- YES
Fed rate hike in 2026?
208279 shares @ 46.7¢·now 63.5¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$132.3K
$35.0K
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
613117 shares @ 20.6¢·now 17.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$103.9K
$-22.5K
- YES
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
39283 shares @ 60.7¢·now 84.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.3K
$9.4K
- YES
Fed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?
22715 shares @ 10.5¢·now 16.8¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$3.8K
$1.4K
- YES
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027?
3467 shares @ 23.6¢·now 41.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.5K
$632.44
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.0% at the end of 2026?
4774 shares @ 18.1¢·now 27.7¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$1.3K
$459.14
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
4549 shares @ 10.8¢·now 24.9¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$1.1K
$641.91
- NO
Will the Fed’s lower bound reach 3.25% or lower before 2027?
1239 shares @ 56.0¢·now 87.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.1K
$384.58
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
781 shares @ 30.0¢·now 29.5¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$230.41
$-3.91
- YES
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be ≥ 4.5% at the end of 2026?
3560 shares @ 4.9¢·now 5.1¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$183.34
$9.95
Recent activity
- MAKER_REBATE$2.58Jul 22, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$230.40Jul 21, 16:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$51.89Jul 21, 03:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$0.28Jul 21, 03:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$1.77Jul 21, 03:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$1.43Jul 21, 02:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.74Jul 21, 02:42 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.92Jul 21, 00:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$419.23Jul 20, 16:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$69.30Jul 20, 05:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.05Jul 20, 05:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$2.05Jul 20, 05:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$0.68Jul 20, 05:42 UTC
- CONVERSIONFed Decision in July?$0.00Jul 20, 05:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed Rate Hike by July 2026 Meeting?$76.49Jul 20, 03:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$25.65Jul 20, 03:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$21.00Jul 20, 03:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$126.17Jul 20, 00:34 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?$5.60Jul 18, 18:49 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$4.10Jul 18, 00:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$20.1K
Trades
1
Buy share
100%
Window
Jun 17, 20:30 UTC → Jun 18, 06:53 UTC
- BUYFed rate hike in 2026?$13.9K@53¢Jun 18, 06:53 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
63% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 2 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
100%
Sample
low
2 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Fed rate hike in 2026?
$13.9K · 69% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $68.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 16, 16:28 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 22, 00:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.