Awkward-Fruit
0xa3219652c907552cbd6270e95152071c0f90c3e2
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$189.72
Total PnL
$-110.46
Realised
$-12.38
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81
92 shares @ 73.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$81.74
$14.32
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
53 shares @ 98.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$53.00
$1.01
- NO
Will Base launch a token by June 30, 2026?
25 shares @ 89.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$24.80
$2.55
- NO
Will Gregg Brelsford win the 2026 Alaska governor election?
23 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.9¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$22.97
$0.01
- YES
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
4012 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$6.02
$-6.02
- YES
Will Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
342 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.20
$-1.20
- YES
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?
7397 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-22.19
- YES
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025?
399 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.60
- YES
Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch?
101 shares @ 79.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2026$0.00
$-79.96
- YES
Will Putin meet with Zelenskyy in 2025?
26 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-5.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$12.04Jun 10, 09:55 UTC
- REDEEMGemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?$24.97Jun 10, 09:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gregg Brelsford win the 2026 Alaska governor election?$22.96Jun 10, 09:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81$68.70Jun 10, 09:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?$52.04May 16, 07:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYGemini 3.2 released by June 30, 2026?$24.87May 16, 07:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?$99.88May 16, 07:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $200 in April?$96.90Apr 7, 03:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Beto O’Rourke win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$49.32Apr 7, 03:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Apr 7, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 6, 00:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 5, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 4, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 3, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 2, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Apr 1, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 31, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 30, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 29, 00:26 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Mar 28, 00:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
12 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 64/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 12
- Avg trade size
- $45.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 8, 00:45 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 10, 09:55 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.