Wallet digest

active

Activity score

76/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

172

Open notional

$1.8K

Total PnL

$-5.5K

Realised

$267.13

Win rate

52%

42 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 172

NO
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?
5767 shares @ 48.1¢·now 20.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028
$1.2K
$-1.6K
NO
Dan Clancy out as Twitch CEO before 2027?
183 shares @ 57.2¢·now 92.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$169.41
$64.49
NO
Abstract FDV above $600M one day after launch?
169 shares @ 61.2¢·now 78.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028
$131.54
$28.37
NO
Ledger IPO before 2027?
109 shares @ 52.9¢·now 90.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$98.10
$40.47
NO
OpenAI IPO before 2027?
94 shares @ 65.2¢·now 80.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$75.92
$14.46
NO
Abstract FDV above $800M one day after launch?
27 shares @ 57.2¢·now 85.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028
$23.14
$7.65
YES
Will Theo launch a token by September 30 2026?
106 shares @ 70.5¢·now 17.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027
$18.55
$-56.14
NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
18 shares @ 93.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$16.58
$0.26
NO
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
112 shares @ 49.0¢·now 14.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$16.49
$-38.44
YES
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
1324 shares @ 29.5¢·now 0.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026
$11.92
$-378.69

Recent activity

TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down on July 28?$1.30Jul 28, 09:54 UTC
TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down on July 27?$2.68Jul 27, 06:06 UTC
TRADEBUYWill New England Revolution win on 2026-07-25?$1.62Jul 26, 00:54 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on July 25?$11.79Jul 25, 16:14 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on July 25?$4.43Jul 25, 08:36 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$16.31Jul 25, 02:02 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Miami be between 90-91°F on July 24?$1.05Jul 24, 18:53 UTC
TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 24?$3.15Jul 24, 08:20 UTC
REDEEMWill MŠK Žilina vs. GKS GieKSa Katowice end in a draw?$50.39Jul 23, 22:27 UTC
TRADEBUYWill MŠK Žilina vs. GKS GieKSa Katowice end in a draw?$41.69Jul 23, 19:34 UTC
TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$8.96Jul 21, 18:35 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on July 20?$4.61Jul 20, 15:00 UTC
REDEEMWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$26.40Jul 20, 00:19 UTC
YIELD$0.00Jul 20, 00:10 UTC
TRADEBUYSpain vs. Argentina: O/U 3.5$4.75Jul 19, 19:26 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Any Other Score?$1.05Jul 19, 19:19 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 1 - 2 Argentina?$1.45Jul 19, 19:13 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$24.17Jul 19, 18:49 UTC
TRADEBUYExact Score: Spain 2 - 1 Argentina?$5.24Jul 19, 18:30 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on July 19?$3.15Jul 19, 14:34 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

54/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

PnL is mostly mark-to-market

Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

52% win rate over 42 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

42 closed markets, 52% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity69 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry35 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk45 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 39
Avg trade size: $8.96
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 10, 23:01 UTC
Last active: Jul 28, 09:54 UTC
Win rate sample: 42 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 23:42:34 UTC·src:Polymarket Data