Linear-Scenario
0xa3f98f9d690a0041f720ce38e4d129cae0198b49
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$683.28
Total PnL
$-1.6K
Realised
$110.41
Win rate
50%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
3203 shares @ 6.8¢·now 6.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$197.01
$-20.82
- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
672 shares @ 29.8¢·now 29.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$194.94
$-5.06
- YES
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election?
750 shares @ 32.0¢·now 11.5¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$86.25
$-153.75
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
300 shares @ 22.0¢·now 15.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$46.50
$-19.50
- YES
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
359 shares @ 20.9¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$44.84
$-30.16
- YES
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026?
1859 shares @ 8.9¢·now 2.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$38.11
$-127.18
- NO
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meeting?
8215 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$36.97
$-191.63
- YES
US military draft authorized in 2026?
156 shares @ 9.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$19.50
$5.46
- YES
Ben-Gvir out as Israeli Minister of National Security by June 30?
345 shares @ 8.6¢·now 2.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$9.84
$-19.77
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
5000 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$7.50
$-2.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?$10.50Jun 14, 01:40 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026?$19.50Jun 14, 01:09 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026?$14.22Jun 14, 01:09 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 14, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 12, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$200.00Jun 11, 21:33 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 11, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 10, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 9, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 8, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by June 8?$15.00Jun 7, 23:20 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 7, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 6, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 5, 00:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Eugen Tomac be the next Prime Minister of Romania?$44.92Jun 4, 02:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Chun Jae-soo win the 2026 Busan Mayoral Election?$198.54Jun 4, 02:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jun 4, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$24.61Jun 3, 22:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?$62.39Jun 3, 22:39 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $59.93
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 28, 13:06 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 01:40 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.