0xa4d616ab9129b052d6725f1007499cf5e6f5eef9
0xa4d616ab9129b052d6725f1007499cf5e6f5eef9
Wallet digest
Activity score
68/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
49
Open notional
$611.59
Total PnL
$-478.42
Realised
$-192.84
Win rate
33%
36 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 49- NO
Iran closes its airspace by May 24?
180 shares @ 80.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$180.43
$36.09
- YES
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?
150 shares @ 78.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$150.11
$32.57
- NO
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026?
111 shares @ 15.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$110.76
$94.15
- NO
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
77 shares @ 76.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$76.52
$17.83
- YES
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026?
50 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$49.55
$0.06
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 16?
22 shares @ 13.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$21.64
$18.67
- YES
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of May 2026?
11 shares @ 77.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$10.94
$2.45
- NO
Will the next model released by xAI debut at a score of at least 1440?
7 shares @ 84.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.49
$1.20
- YES
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?
2 shares @ 30.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$2.48
$1.72
- YES
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?
1 shares @ 53.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.23
$0.58
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?$6.96Jun 12, 03:54 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?$1.91Jun 12, 01:51 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?$5.14Jun 12, 00:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12?$12.29Jun 12, 00:03 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$1.61Jun 11, 19:30 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?$10.00Jun 11, 19:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.39Jun 9, 00:37 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?$0.10Jun 8, 11:10 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?$0.41Jun 8, 01:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?$1.14Jun 7, 21:29 UTC
- TRADESELLUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?$0.47Jun 7, 19:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.68Jun 6, 18:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 9?$3.36Jun 5, 16:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?$0.00Jun 5, 00:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$3.43Jun 4, 13:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026?$8.70Jun 3, 20:16 UTC
- TRADESELLWill a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?$1.84Jun 3, 12:07 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?$6.91Jun 3, 12:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?$0.19Jun 3, 01:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election?$6.92Jun 3, 01:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 36 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
36 closed markets, 33% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $6.88
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 27, 16:52 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 12, 03:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 36 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.