0xa518e032902d32d4ed7bd892881d0c78d25491a3
0xa518e032902d32d4ed7bd892881d0c78d25491a3
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
21
Open notional
$111.87
Total PnL
$-16.37
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
19 shares @ 52.0¢·now 59.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$11.35
$1.35
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
23 shares @ 43.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$10.35
$0.35
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
18 shares @ 56.0¢·now 56.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$10.26
$0.00
- NO
Will 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?
14 shares @ 73.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Aug 9, 2026$10.21
$0.21
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
12 shares @ 78.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$10.15
$0.67
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
20 shares @ 49.0¢·now 41.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$8.37
$-1.63
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
15 shares @ 67.0¢·now 50.5¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$7.54
$-2.46
- YES
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
6 shares @ 80.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$5.25
$0.39
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
11 shares @ 46.0¢·now 44.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$4.84
$-0.22
- NO
US strike on Colombia by December 31?
6 shares @ 79.0¢·now 75.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$4.50
$-0.24
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill 100 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between August 3-August 9?$10.00Aug 3, 04:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?$10.16Aug 2, 20:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$10.00Aug 2, 11:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?$10.00Aug 2, 11:40 UTC
- REDEEMNew Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?$1.53Aug 2, 05:55 UTC
- REDEEMAnother pandemic before GTA VI?$1.91Aug 2, 05:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?$1.99Aug 2, 05:55 UTC
- REDEEMNew Rihanna Album before GTA VI?$3.06Aug 2, 05:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?$6.63Aug 2, 05:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill GPT-6 be released before GTA VI?$9.69Aug 2, 05:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill TKO Group (TKO) beat quarterly earnings?$10.20Aug 2, 03:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 4?$10.00Aug 1, 19:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?$9.58Aug 1, 11:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump say "Hell" 3+ times during cabinet meeting?$0.00Aug 1, 05:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?$1.57Aug 1, 03:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX say "ISS" or "International Space Station" during earnings call?$2.85Jul 31, 19:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew Rihanna Album before GTA VI?$3.14Jul 31, 11:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jersey Mike's Subs' market cap be between $6.5B and $8B at market close on IPO day?$0.00Jul 31, 05:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $730 in July?$0.00Jul 30, 07:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Warsh say "Shock" during July Press Conference?$3.06Jul 30, 07:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
25 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 49/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 25
- Avg trade size
- $5.87
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 18:19 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 3, 04:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.