Grouchy-Individual
0xa5201f524274d8d96ccc353792ec35c1407216ce
Wallet digest
Activity score
43/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$17.93
Total PnL
$-283.97
Realised
$-1.94
Win rate
1%
182 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NEW YORK YANKEES
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees
5 shares @ 55.0¢·now 47.0¢·exp Sep 5, 2026$2.56
$-0.44
- YES
Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?
3 shares @ 60.5¢·now 50.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.65
$-0.35
- YES
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
4 shares @ 55.0¢·now 39.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.42
$-0.58
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
2 shares @ 44.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.26
$0.26
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
1 shares @ 67.0¢·now 77.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.16
$0.16
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
2 shares @ 65.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.07
$0.07
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
2 shares @ 65.0¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.07
$0.07
- NO
Will ThreadGuy appear on the UpOnly podcast by December 31?
1 shares @ 77.0¢·now 80.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.05
$0.05
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on August 20?
3 shares @ 38.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Aug 20, 2026$1.04
$0.04
- NO
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?
2 shares @ 65.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.99
$-0.01
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on August 20?$1.03Aug 19, 19:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in London be 15°C on August 20?$1.03Aug 19, 19:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Zhengzhou be 31°C on August 20?$1.04Aug 19, 19:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on August 18?$3.57Aug 19, 07:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 10°C on August 19?$1.04Aug 18, 19:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 29°C on August 18?$1.04Aug 17, 19:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on August 18?$1.04Aug 17, 19:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 38°C on August 18?$1.03Aug 17, 19:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 17?$0.46Aug 16, 21:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 17?$0.69Aug 16, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 17?$1.50Aug 16, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 9°C on August 17?$1.03Aug 16, 19:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on August 17?$1.04Aug 16, 19:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 16?$1.70Aug 15, 20:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on August 16?$1.03Aug 15, 19:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on August 13?$9.00Aug 14, 00:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on August 14?$1.45Aug 13, 21:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on August 14?$1.60Aug 13, 20:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 96-97°F on August 14?$1.03Aug 13, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 25°C on August 14?$1.03Aug 13, 20:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
62/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
1% win rate over 182 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
31 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 26/100.
182 closed markets, 1% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 31
- Avg trade size
- $1.29
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 11, 22:20 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 19:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 182 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.