Will Democrats win all "core four" senate races?

1. 1

   Up 1pp over 24h

   Now 71¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 4595h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $14.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if a candidate representing the Democratic Party wins the 2026 midterm U.S. Senate elections in Georgia, Michigan, North Carolina, and Maine (inclusive of any run-offs). A candidate will be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) will not count. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered a Democrat, regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call all relevant races for the same candidate. If all three sources don’t call a relevant race for the same candidate, this market will use the official certification of the election results for resolution.