Insecure-Bud
0xa59812a5fa433031c68f7655ec1823d03e592ff3
Wallet digest
Activity score
76/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
15
Open notional
$41.42
Total PnL
$-321.72
Realised
$4.85
Win rate
75%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
Will the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?
40 shares @ 81.5¢·now 61.0¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$24.40
$-8.20
- YES
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
20 shares @ 52.0¢·now 38.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.70
$-2.70
- YES
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $4.0T by December 31?
100 shares @ 5.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$5.50
$0.50
- OPENAI
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first?
18 shares @ 48.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$3.02
$-5.76
- YES
Pepsi (PEP) Q2 organic revenue growth 2.5%-3%?
3 shares @ 37.0¢·now 20.9¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.68
$-0.52
- YES
Will Maxx Crosby play for Los Angeles Rams next?
49 shares @ 7.8¢·now 0.3¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$0.12
$-3.67
- YES
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $710 in June?
250 shares @ 55.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-139.50
- YES
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?
139 shares @ 52.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-73.11
- NO
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?
100 shares @ 51.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 19, 2026$0.00
$-51.00
- YES
Israel closes its airspace by June 15?
50 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Ed Gallrein win the 2026 KY-04 Republican Primary Election by 9% or more?$39.26Jul 2, 14:47 UTC
- REWARD$3.27Jul 1, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$1.27Jun 30, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June?$65.00Jun 29, 08:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?$11.00Jun 29, 06:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.40 in June?$2.00Jun 29, 05:38 UTC
- TRADESELLFed Rate Hike by September 2026 Meeting?$34.00Jun 29, 03:55 UTC
- REWARD$7.17Jun 29, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$70.50Jun 28, 15:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$22.82Jun 28, 15:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$2.70Jun 28, 14:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$1.49Jun 28, 14:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$23.00Jun 28, 11:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$23.50Jun 28, 11:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$24.00Jun 28, 11:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland by September 30, 2026?$25.50Jun 28, 10:58 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.07Jun 27, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$7.37Jun 27, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?$48.22Jun 26, 16:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 9, 2026?$7.66Jun 26, 15:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
75% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $33.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 25, 07:48 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 14:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.