Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama?
Probability
14¢
1h
-0.9pp
24h
+4.1pp
24h Vol
$530.36
Liquidity
$19.5K
Probability (last 7 days)
+6.4pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 4pp over 24h
Now 14¢; -0.9pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 562h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Thin liquidity
Only $19.5k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 562.1h
- 13:54SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 562h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.0pp
to 13¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.5pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.1pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.3pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 11¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 3.2pp
to 11¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Alabama. If no 2026 Alabama Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Alabama Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- May 19, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).