Awkward-Precedent
0xa5e3a5d488d90d5643cdd00f246e271dc19d40e2
Wallet digest
Activity score
37/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
34
Open notional
$3.51
Total PnL
$-140.20
Realised
$-1.04
Win rate
0%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 34- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Oman by September 30, 2026?
48 shares @ 1.4¢·now 5.2¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$2.51
$1.83
- NO
Ukraine joins NATO before 2027?
1 shares @ 96.8¢·now 96.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.00
$-0.00
- NO
Will the price of XRP be above $0.70 on June 26?
183 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 26, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
167 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between June 15-June 21?
53 shares @ 8.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 21, 2026$0.00
$-4.40
- YES
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia?
49 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-5.40
- SUNS
Suns vs. Hawks
37 shares @ 59.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 24, 2026$0.00
$-22.00
- YES
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti?
30 shares @ 13.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 20, 2026$0.00
$-3.90
- BLACKHAWKS
Blue Jackets vs. Blackhawks
22 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-10.00
- MAPLE LEAFS
Maple Leafs vs. Utah
22 shares @ 32.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-6.90
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYUFC Fight Night: Diego Ferreira vs. Billy Quarantillo (Lightweight, Main Card)$2.06Aug 5, 05:19 UTC
- REDEEMITF Hillcrest: Jenny Duerst vs Gloria Pop$5.26Jul 8, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYITF Hillcrest: Jenny Duerst vs Gloria Pop$5.01Jul 8, 02:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump speak to Yoon Suk Yeol in July?$1.00Jul 2, 08:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$3.96Jul 2, 08:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$5.98Jul 2, 08:32 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$2.59Jul 2, 08:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$0.99Jun 30, 03:58 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$1.00Jun 30, 03:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$1.03Jun 30, 03:46 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 31, 2026?$3.80Jun 30, 03:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31?$3.35Jun 30, 03:46 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?$4.20Jun 30, 03:46 UTC
- TRADESELLIran leadership change by December 31?$4.20Jun 30, 03:46 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$5.25Jun 30, 03:46 UTC
- TRADESELLRussia-Ukraine peace talks by December 31, 2026?$5.85Jun 30, 03:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Qatar by September 30, 2026?$1.50Jun 29, 15:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?$0.51Jun 29, 05:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lebanon recognize Israel by June 30?$2.77Jun 29, 03:38 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$1.06Jun 29, 03:27 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
43/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 49
- Avg trade size
- $2.22
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 27, 03:07 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 5, 05:19 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.