Flat-Subtitle
0xa61273735f2f6ffa5f27cb2b90c2d60c3b1aac04
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$209.46
Total PnL
$35.74
Realised
$7.70
Win rate
11%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- YES
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027?
91 shares @ 69.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$90.54
$28.03
- YES
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
37 shares @ 94.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$37.03
$2.03
- NO
Anthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by June 30, 2026?
30 shares @ 98.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$30.34
$0.34
- NO
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on last trading day of IPO month?
13 shares @ 74.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$13.39
$3.39
- YES
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by December 31?
11 shares @ 88.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.26
$1.26
- NO
Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day?
10 shares @ 95.3¢·now 94.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$9.42
$-0.11
- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
9 shares @ 73.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$6.96
$0.56
- NO
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?
6 shares @ 81.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$6.17
$1.17
- NO
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
3 shares @ 96.0¢·now 97.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.06
$0.06
- NO
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
2 shares @ 65.0¢·now 84.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.29
$0.29
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Aug 6, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 5, 02:33 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 4, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 3, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 2, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Aug 1, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 31, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 30, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 28, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 27, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 26, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 25, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 23, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 20, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 19, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 18, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
11% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
5 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 5
- Avg trade size
- $4.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 23, 03:00 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 6, 00:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.