Anthony Albanese out as Prime Minister of Australia by June 30, 2026?
Probability
6¢
1h
+2.3pp
24h
-0.7pp
24h Vol
$86.61
Liquidity
$17.2K
Probability (last 7 days)
+0.8pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5980h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 2
Wide spread — 5.6¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5980.1h
- 19:53SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5980h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
-1.0pp over the last 24h, now 6¢.
Biggest hourly move: +3.0pp at 01:00 (to 9¢).
Show all 2 hour-by-hour ticks
- 02:00 · +3.0pp → 9¢
- 01:00 · +3.0pp → 9¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Anthony Albanese ceases to be the Prime Minister of Australia for any period of time between market creation and June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Anthony Albanese's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from the Australian government and Anthony Albanese; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (5.6¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.