Aged-Spruce
0xa6df59fd5bffb4fef5283b6a775f4d3c711f4f5b
Activity score
68/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$60.04
Total PnL
$-65.96
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
38 shares @ 65.5¢·now 33.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.75
$-12.25
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
48 shares @ 27.3¢·now 20.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$9.76
$-3.24
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
98 shares @ 24.5¢·now 8.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$8.32
$-15.68
- YES
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
67 shares @ 15.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.67
$-4.33
- YES
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
46 shares @ 32.9¢·now 11.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.24
$-9.76
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?
22 shares @ 23.0¢·now 19.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$4.24
$-0.76
- YES
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026?
48 shares @ 21.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.05
$-5.95
- YES
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?
15 shares @ 26.0¢·now 24.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.77
$-0.23
- YES
Israel closes its airspace by May 31?
10 shares @ 20.0¢·now 15.5¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.55
$-0.45
- YES
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?
25 shares @ 8.0¢·now 6.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.50
$-0.50
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30?$5.001d ago
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by May 31?$2.001d ago
- TRADEBUYUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?$4.001d ago
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$3.001d ago
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31?$1.004d ago
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 31?$3.004d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?$1.004d ago
- TRADEBUYWill Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?$1.004d ago
- TRADEBUYIran closes its airspace by May 8?$4.004d ago
- TRADESELLWill the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?$13.954d ago
- TRADESELLWill a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?$0.016d ago
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$4.006d ago
- REDEEMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?$0.006d ago
- REDEEMKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?$0.006d ago
- TRADEBUYWill the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting occur after May 10?$3.0014d ago
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$10.0014d ago
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$14.3521d ago
- TRADEBUYWill a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026?$3.0030d ago
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30?$10.0032d ago
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 15?$2.0032d ago
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $3.71
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- 37d ago
- Last active
- 1d ago
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".
