Thorough-Neighbourhood
0xa7fea388f955a9517067111030eb771c6d911f3e
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$2.1K
Total PnL
$-3.5K
Realised
$342.08
Win rate
64%
42 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?
1019 shares @ 90.1¢·now 98.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$1.0K
$84.06
- YES
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by August 31, 2026?
363 shares @ 88.3¢·now 96.7¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$350.84
$30.16
- NO
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?
320 shares @ 86.5¢·now 65.7¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$210.24
$-66.56
- NO
U.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?
261 shares @ 69.8¢·now 67.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$175.22
$-6.98
- YES
US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
321 shares @ 19.3¢·now 39.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$125.07
$63.31
- NO
Will White House post 40-59 posts from July 28 to August 4, 2026?
121 shares @ 99.9¢·now 98.8¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$119.55
$-1.33
- YES
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
125 shares @ 27.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$38.12
$4.37
- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
500 shares @ 9.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$37.50
$-7.50
- YES
Will Alibaba be the second-best AI lab at the end of August 2026?
125 shares @ 6.2¢·now 11.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$14.38
$6.58
- YES
Will Valve add sticker trade-ups before November?
110 shares @ 10.8¢·now 12.5¢·exp Nov 1, 2026$13.77
$1.82
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump publicly insult someone on August 3, 2026?$5.00Jul 29, 04:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$3.50Jul 29, 02:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$32.50Jul 29, 01:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Six Seven" during cabinet meeting?$128.84Jul 29, 01:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYU.S. anti-cartel operation outside of the U.S. by July 31?$146.21Jul 29, 00:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$15.81Jul 28, 18:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Security" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?$72.00Jul 28, 18:29 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump say "Security" during tribute to Lindsey Graham?$20.50Jul 28, 18:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill White House post 200+ posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$337.00Jul 28, 18:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill Boeing say "Space" during earnings call?$200.00Jul 28, 16:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump post "Lindsey" or "Graham" on Truth Social this week?$249.42Jul 28, 16:26 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump post "World Cup" on Truth Social this week?$30.50Jul 28, 15:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump post "Lindsey" or "Graham" on Truth Social this week?$2.61Jul 28, 14:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill White House post 180-199 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$0.52Jul 28, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill White House post 180-199 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$0.48Jul 28, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill White House post 180-199 posts from July 21 to July 28, 2026?$2.74Jul 28, 14:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump post "Lindsey" or "Graham" on Truth Social this week?$211.60Jul 28, 14:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump post "Lindsey" or "Graham" on Truth Social this week?$32.68Jul 28, 14:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the earnings call not air?$24.69Jul 28, 13:56 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
70/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
64% win rate over 42 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
42 closed markets, 64% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $29.02
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 03:34 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 04:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 42 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.