Solid-Pinstripe
0xa86f687d7eed8760decdbf3dd6d7ed59c1e8022c
Wallet digest
Activity score
69/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
177
Open notional
$3.5K
Total PnL
$-617.71
Realised
$-145.40
Win rate
25%
48 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 177- NO
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
200 shares @ 96.5¢·now 96.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$193.10
$0.10
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
200 shares @ 96.1¢·now 96.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$192.31
$0.10
- NO
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
200 shares @ 95.8¢·now 91.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$182.40
$-9.20
- NO
Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
75 shares @ 94.9¢·now 89.6¢·exp Feb 28, 2026$67.20
$-3.97
- YES
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?
200 shares @ 30.0¢·now 29.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$59.00
$-1.00
- NO
Will 50 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
51 shares @ 98.5¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$50.82
$0.59
- YES
Will a Chinese company have one of the top 10 AI models by December 31?
51 shares @ 95.4¢·now 97.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$49.93
$1.27
- NO
Trump on $250 bill this year?
51 shares @ 97.6¢·now 97.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$49.60
$-0.18
- NO
Will the DFM Real Estate Index dip to 4,000 in 2026?
51 shares @ 98.6¢·now 96.9¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$49.39
$-0.89
- NO
Will Gabby Williams have the highest three point percentage in the WNBA 2026 regular season?
50 shares @ 98.5¢·now 98.6¢·exp Sep 24, 2026$49.27
$0.02
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$25.00Jul 29, 18:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wellington be 13°C on July 30?$48.00Jul 29, 18:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 17°C on July 29?$16.06Jul 29, 18:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 24°C on July 31?$3.50Jul 29, 18:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on July 30?$15.00Jul 29, 17:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$157.20Jul 29, 17:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.90 and $3.20 on July 31, 2026?$26.31Jul 29, 17:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?$152.60Jul 29, 17:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 23°C on July 31?$7.80Jul 29, 16:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?$60.00Jul 29, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$24.00Jul 29, 16:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by September 30, 2026?$43.50Jul 29, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on July 30?$1.50Jul 29, 15:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Chengdu be 27°C on July 30?$3.40Jul 29, 15:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bernard Taylor be the FL-21 Democratic nominee?$14.40Jul 29, 15:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of August 2026?$4.20Jul 29, 15:15 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?$185.80Jul 29, 15:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$49.80Jul 29, 14:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Wuhan be 36°C on July 31?$14.00Jul 29, 14:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$193.00Jul 29, 14:23 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
54/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 48 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
48 closed markets, 25% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $40.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 11:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 18:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 48 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.