Will Michelle Bachelet be the next Secretary General of the United Nations?
Probability
14¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-0.5pp
24h Vol
$127.68
Liquidity
$2.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-5.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Resolution-risk signal firing
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 2
Wide spread — 11.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
- 3
Past expiry — awaiting resolution
Market is past its end date. Any price move now is a settlement / dispute artefact, not new information.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 15:54SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.
- 15:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 14¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 14¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 14¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 14¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 14¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 14¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 13¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 10¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 13¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.5pp
to 12¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 13¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -12.5pp
to 9¢
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 13¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 13¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 16¢
- 17:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 15¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.0pp
to 15¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 16¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.0pp
to 13¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -11.5pp
to 12¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 16¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.5pp
to 16¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 16¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 14¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.5pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -17.0pp
to 10¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 12¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 13¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.0pp
to 13¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
A United Nations Secretary-General selection is expected to be held in 2026 to choose the next Secretary-General of the United Nations. This market will resolve according to the listed person who is officially chosen to be the next Secretary-General of the United Nations in this selection process. Temporary, interim, or placeholder Secretary-Generals appointed before the next Secretary-General selection will not count. If no United Nations Secretary-General selection takes place or the results of this selection are not known by June 30, 2027, this market will resolve to "Other". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United Nations; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Feb 28, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (11.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).