Vigorous-Ghost
0xa87fd530e77d3b30a9148da21e248bf9f1ab864d
Wallet digest
Activity score
81/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.9K
Total PnL
$-127.47
Realised
$8.11
Win rate
37%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
367 shares @ 70.6¢·now 70.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$259.02
$-0.42
- YES
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 31, 2026?
180 shares @ 89.4¢·now 84.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$151.47
$-9.41
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
280 shares @ 49.2¢·now 50.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$141.58
$3.56
- NO
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?
72 shares @ 93.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$67.47
$0.36
- NO
Iran invades Kuwait by August 31?
71 shares @ 92.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$64.74
$-0.29
- YES
Will "Dai Dai - Shakira, Burna Boy" be the #1 song this week?
50 shares @ 98.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$50.25
$0.93
- YES
Will Intel say "Quarter" 10+ times during earnings call?
41 shares @ 94.8¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$40.42
$1.64
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
53 shares @ 73.5¢·now 74.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$39.67
$0.46
- NO
Will Intel say "Income" 10+ times during earnings call?
29 shares @ 95.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$27.77
$0.13
- NO
Will "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be at least 98m?
28 shares @ 87.9¢·now 92.5¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$26.21
$1.29
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?$2.55Jul 23, 21:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Nate Powell advance to the general election for WA-05?$0.92Jul 23, 20:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by August 31?$9.50Jul 23, 20:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Verizon say "China" during earnings call?$15.73Jul 23, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYMoscow air traffic suspended by July 25?$1.16Jul 23, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through July 31?$6.55Jul 23, 20:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?$0.19Jul 23, 20:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31?$67.11Jul 23, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?$6.29Jul 23, 20:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS announces halt in Iran offensive operations by July 31?$2.46Jul 23, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Madonna's monthly listeners figure hit 58m by August 31?$0.91Jul 23, 19:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by August 31, 2026?$3.15Jul 23, 19:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 24?$0.81Jul 23, 19:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on July 24?$5.97Jul 23, 19:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia enter Novyi Donbas by September 30?$4.90Jul 23, 19:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?$6.84Jul 23, 19:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Austin be between 98-99°F on July 24?$4.40Jul 23, 19:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?$1.75Jul 23, 19:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump meet with Benjamin Netanyahu in July 2026?$2.96Jul 23, 19:32 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in London be 28°C on July 24?$2.20Jul 23, 19:25 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
42/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
37% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 41/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $6.65
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 16:56 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 21:03 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.