Limp-Recollection
0xa8b964a5e729d2af6314ca8b7babc8c8cb4b6b7c
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
22
Open notional
$14.1K
Total PnL
$-11.2K
Realised
$-5.9K
Win rate
7%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- YES
Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
14893 shares @ 20.2¢·now 51.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.7K
$4.7K
- YES
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
14204 shares @ 36.9¢·now 30.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$4.3K
$-906.55
- NO
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
1939 shares @ 64.6¢·now 65.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.3K
$16.80
- YES
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?
6267 shares @ 10.0¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$470.04
$-154.15
- YES
Will Likud win fewer than 20 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
1253 shares @ 14.4¢·now 22.7¢·exp Oct 27, 2026$284.32
$103.95
- YES
Netanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?
2902 shares @ 13.1¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$10.16
$-369.02
- YES
Netanyahu out by May 31?
72710 shares @ 2.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.0K
- YES
Netanyahu out by June 30?
64747 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-4.0K
- YES
Netanyahu out by April 30?
24820 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-588.68
- YES
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
8008 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-201.32
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$246.57Jul 28, 04:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?$247.46Jul 28, 04:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$116.22Jul 28, 04:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?$112.75Jul 28, 04:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$678.74Jul 28, 04:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?$681.46Jul 28, 04:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$228.76Jul 27, 18:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$154.28Jul 27, 18:49 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?$0.77Jul 27, 18:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?$146.09Jul 27, 18:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$108.92Jul 27, 18:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$100.07Jul 26, 04:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$151.48Jul 26, 02:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?$152.04Jul 26, 02:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$14.97Jul 24, 18:33 UTC
- TRADESELLNetanyahu drops out of Israel election by July 31?$14.42Jul 24, 18:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$142.59Jul 24, 17:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel strike 4 countries in 2026?$142.74Jul 24, 17:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$102.36Jul 24, 06:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of December?$144.98Jul 24, 06:45 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
7% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $137.76
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 20, 22:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 04:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.