Troubled-Karate-Backburn
0xa8e0ceb5f331e79f54530a789f6d6502c9bf70e2
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
15
Open notional
$1.9K
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 15- NO
Mitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?
1270 shares @ 85.0¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.3K
$182.24
- YES
Will Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?
393 shares @ 83.0¢·now 85.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$335.59
$9.81
- YES
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
1000 shares @ 43.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$305.00
$-125.00
- YES
Kash Patel out by July 31?
2184 shares @ 7.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.28
$-152.36
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?
1000 shares @ 8.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-83.98
- NO
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026?
827 shares @ 12.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-104.72
- NO
Will Starmer say "Social Media" during the next PMQ?
500 shares @ 70.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-350.00
- NO
Will Starmer say "NHS" 3+ times during the next PMQ?
210 shares @ 36.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-77.25
- YES
Will Starmer say "King" or "Queen" during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?
168 shares @ 90.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 11, 2026$0.00
$-152.00
- NO
Will Starmer say "Constituent" or "Constituency" during the next PMQ?
166 shares @ 74.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-123.84
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?$7.83Jul 29, 12:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?$48.82Jul 27, 10:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?$142.75Jul 26, 14:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?$1.04Jul 25, 23:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Flavio Bolsonaro qualify for Brazil's presidential runoff?$126.19Jul 25, 19:38 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?$396.80Jul 25, 19:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYKash Patel out by July 31?$103.77Jul 19, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYKash Patel out by July 31?$0.99Jul 19, 13:45 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.03Jul 18, 00:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?$361.33Jul 17, 21:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?$123.90Jul 17, 20:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?$46.84Jul 17, 19:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?$30.60Jul 17, 18:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?$170.00Jul 17, 18:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?$74.52Jul 17, 18:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell votes in the Senate by July 31?$274.68Jul 17, 18:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$112.16Jul 12, 22:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$19.44Jul 12, 22:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$8.62Jul 12, 22:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYKash Patel out by July 31?$15.92Jul 11, 22:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 73/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $102.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 6, 21:07 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 12:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.