Dismal-Moustache
0xa99cd888fda757bcddb877a4904bd164d46608b4
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
53
Open notional
$1.7K
Total PnL
$-88.56
Realised
$-4.50
Win rate
25%
4 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 53- NO
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026?
363 shares @ 96.5¢·now 94.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$342.42
$-7.57
- NO
Human moon landing in 2026?
256 shares @ 96.9¢·now 97.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$248.83
$0.38
- NO
Will Ukraine agree to give up the rest of Donbas before 2027?
215 shares @ 93.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$201.08
$1.08
- NO
Blue Origin New Glenn launch in 2026?
116 shares @ 86.4¢·now 88.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$101.85
$1.85
- NO
Will Russia enter Havrylivka by July 31, 2026?
106 shares @ 94.2¢·now 95.3¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$101.13
$1.13
- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?
100 shares @ 92.5¢·now 98.2¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$98.12
$5.68
- YES
Will Craig Greenberg win the 2026 Louisville mayoral election?
110 shares @ 91.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$96.69
$-3.30
- YES
Will Kate Marshall win the 2026 Reno mayoral election?
102 shares @ 88.0¢·now 89.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$91.53
$1.53
- YES
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
51 shares @ 97.9¢·now 99.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$50.69
$0.69
- YES
Will Loranne Ausley win the Tallahassee mayoral election?
100 shares @ 54.0¢·now 40.0¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$40.00
$-14.00
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Khamenei post 10-14 posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?$34.88Jul 10, 18:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Khamenei post 15-19 posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?$60.06Jul 10, 18:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill a dozen eggs cost between $2.00–$2.25 in June?$5.02Jul 10, 17:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 9?$1.00Jul 10, 16:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?$10.00Jul 10, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamenei post 0-4 posts from July 10 to July 17, 2026?$10.04Jul 10, 16:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamenei post 15-19 posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?$60.00Jul 10, 16:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill France win on 2026-07-09?$16.13Jul 9, 22:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamenei post 10-14 posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?$10.07Jul 9, 16:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal?$13.78Jul 9, 16:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jacob Tsimerman win the 2026 Fields Medal?$15.04Jul 9, 15:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 31?$10.00Jul 9, 10:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 launch by July 15?$30.12Jul 9, 10:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$15.00Jul 9, 06:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Khamenei post 10-14 posts from July 3 to July 10, 2026?$20.14Jul 9, 06:21 UTC
- REDEEMWill Marine Le Pen win her appeal to lift ineligibility ban in 2026?$71.07Jul 9, 03:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?$0.70Jul 8, 18:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Switzerland be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup?$26.10Jul 8, 12:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ronaldo Cry at the World Cup?$1.03Jul 7, 23:29 UTC
- REDEEMWill Khamenei post 5-9 posts from June 30 to July 7, 2026?$68.89Jul 7, 18:35 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
17/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $27.75
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 11:09 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 18:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.