Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-445.95

Realised

$-144.75

Win rate

55 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 55

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET
32 shares @ 31.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
YES
Will Aston Villa FC win on 2026-04-30?
22 shares @ 33.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026
$0.00
$-7.14
YES
Will Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid end in a draw?
21 shares @ 23.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 5, 2026
$0.00
$-4.89
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET
21 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026
$0.00
$-5.00
YES
Will SC Braga win on 2026-04-19?
20 shares @ 52.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 19, 2026
$0.00
$-10.39
YES
Will SC Braga win on 2026-05-03?
20 shares @ 57.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026
$0.00
$-11.21
OVER
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners
19 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 6, 2026
$0.00
$-9.41
YES
Will US Catanzaro 1929 win on 2026-05-01?
18 shares @ 22.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026
$0.00
$-4.20
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET
17 shares @ 58.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 4, 2026
$0.00
$-10.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET
17 shares @ 12.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026
$0.00
$-2.00

Recent activity

TRADEBUYWill IR Iran win on 2026-06-15?$5.84Jun 15, 20:12 UTC
TRADEBUYDarwin Núñez: 1+ goals$5.09Jun 15, 20:10 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Egypt win on 2026-06-15?$5.09Jun 15, 20:08 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET$2.06May 11, 15:05 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET$0.56May 11, 15:01 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET$2.07May 11, 14:59 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$1.84May 11, 14:59 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$1.03May 11, 14:57 UTC
TRADEBUYCrystal Palace FC vs. FK Shakhtar Donetsk: Both Teams to Score$4.51May 7, 10:09 UTC
TRADEBUYWill RC Strasbourg Alsace win on 2026-05-07?$5.08May 7, 10:09 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET$5.21May 7, 09:42 UTC
REDEEMWill Montevideo City Torque win on 2026-05-06?$14.78May 7, 05:55 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Montevideo City Torque win on 2026-05-06?$7.65May 6, 21:04 UTC
TRADESELLParis Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime?$7.66May 6, 20:14 UTC
TRADEBUYParis Saint-Germain FC leading at halftime?$4.05May 6, 19:10 UTC
TRADESELLFC Bayern München leading at halftime?$4.03May 6, 19:09 UTC
TRADEBUYFC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: O/U 10.5 Total Corners$9.55May 6, 11:53 UTC
TRADEBUYMichael Olise: Anytime Goalscorer$5.09May 6, 11:52 UTC
TRADEBUYLuis Diaz: Anytime Goalscorer$5.09May 6, 11:52 UTC
TRADEBUYFC Bayern München leading at halftime?$10.15May 6, 11:52 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Attention signal

66/100

read-only

Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 55 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

29/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 27/100.

Resolved-only track record

pass

55 closed markets, 0% win rate.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity42 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence100 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry87 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk27 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 45
Avg trade size: $6.04
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: May 4, 21:35 UTC
Last active: Jun 15, 20:12 UTC
Win rate sample: 55 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 03:55:56 UTC·src:Polymarket Data