Noisy-Session
0xa9f52df039db4cc661bc6da593b302f366043018
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
27
Open notional
$150.72
Total PnL
$-98.88
Realised
$-3.16
Win rate
20%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 27- NO
Will there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?
70 shares @ 65.8¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$44.58
$-1.65
- NO
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
59 shares @ 44.0¢·now 44.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$26.10
$0.00
- NO
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?
20 shares @ 89.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Jul 15, 2026$17.95
$0.00
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Nevada governor race in 2026?
29 shares @ 48.5¢·now 39.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$11.32
$-2.59
- YES
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
31 shares @ 34.1¢·now 31.1¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$9.60
$-0.93
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?
13 shares @ 66.6¢·now 64.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$8.43
$-0.28
- YES
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
31 shares @ 9.0¢·now 17.8¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$5.59
$2.77
- YES
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
27 shares @ 16.0¢·now 20.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$5.53
$1.21
- NO
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in June 2026?
5 shares @ 90.7¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.11
$0.46
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
10 shares @ 50.0¢·now 45.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$4.55
$-0.45
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.89Jul 3, 22:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?$1.11Jul 3, 20:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03?$1.14Jul 3, 20:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$5.36Jul 3, 02:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$10.53Jul 3, 02:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$26.10Jul 3, 02:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026?$0.62Jul 3, 02:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?$4.60Jul 2, 22:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?$13.35Jul 2, 15:05 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:13 UTC
- TRADESELLWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$9.16Jul 1, 23:23 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael closes its airspace by June 30?$14.44Jul 1, 17:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$9.61Jul 1, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be at least 2300 measles cases in the U.S. by July 31, 2026?$46.86Jul 1, 15:02 UTC
- REDEEMRomanian PM Bolojan out by June 30?$40.68Jul 1, 13:22 UTC
- REDEEM Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?$100.54Jul 1, 06:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 2200 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?$18.42Jul 1, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 2150 measles cases in the U.S. by June 30, 2026?$5.18Jul 1, 06:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on June 30?$1.20Jun 30, 22:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ecuador win on 2026-06-30?$1.28Jun 30, 16:19 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
20% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
39 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 39
- Avg trade size
- $10.64
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 14:20 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 3, 22:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.