Courteous-Lord
0xaa36e575eb29e8b149a6ddb143c8e1cc61af7d42
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-268.92
Realised
$2.33
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- NO
Will Anthropic have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control On)?
100 shares @ 2.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
- NO
Will S&P 500 (SPY) hit (LOW) $750 Week of June 1 2026?
100 shares @ 69.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-69.00
- YES
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral Election by 10–15%?
100 shares @ 11.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 2, 2026$0.00
$-11.40
- YES
Will Brigid Duffy record the fastest shot at the 2026 WLL All-Star Skills Competition?
100 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$0.00
$-45.00
- NO
Will Bob Menery enter the ring against Johnny Manziel?
50 shares @ 61.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-30.83
- YES
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 32m?
50 shares @ 35.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 11, 2026$0.00
$-17.50
- YES
Will flameZ be the highest-rated player at BLAST Rivals Fort Worth 2026?
50 shares @ 46.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 3, 2026$0.00
$-23.00
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February?
44 shares @ 86.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 1, 2026$0.00
$-37.96
- NO
Will Solana dip to $180 in October?
36 shares @ 83.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2025$0.00
$-30.00
- YES
Will William Hakansson be drafted in the top 3 of the 2026 NHL Draft?
20 shares @ 3.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-0.60
Recent activity
- REWARD$84.23Aug 7, 20:23 UTC
- REWARD$11.53Aug 1, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?$3.36Jul 31, 07:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?$6.85Jul 31, 07:38 UTC
- TRADESELLSituational Awareness announces fund wind-down by August 31, 2026?$2.29Jul 31, 07:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYSituational Awareness announces fund wind-down by August 31, 2026?$3.00Jul 31, 06:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Brazil decrease the target for the Selic rate by 25 bps at the September meeting?$3.58Jul 31, 05:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Cam Schlittler win the 2026 AL Cy Young Award?$7.24Jul 31, 05:50 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$72.00Jul 31, 05:36 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?$48.00Jul 31, 04:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 31?$72.00Jul 31, 04:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?$48.00Jul 31, 04:36 UTC
- REWARD$2.04Jul 31, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?$118.00Jul 30, 02:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$144.00Jul 30, 01:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?$124.00Jul 30, 01:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$144.00Jul 30, 01:34 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$80.38Jul 30, 00:18 UTC
- REWARD$9.28Jul 30, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14?$5.41Jul 29, 08:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $43.99
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 28, 04:48 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 7, 20:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.