Favorable-Bidder
0xaab6086663b8eb8c71936ea26e248f303cb6b6a2
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
22
Open notional
$5.06
Total PnL
$-260.67
Realised
$-92.77
Win rate
22%
9 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
12 shares @ 8.4¢·now 13.8¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$1.64
$0.64
- YES
Poilievre out as leader of Conservatives by December 31, 2026?
16 shares @ 18.6¢·now 10.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.56
$-1.35
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
88 shares @ 7.3¢·now 1.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.19
$-5.31
- YES
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
7 shares @ 21.0¢·now 5.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.39
$-1.11
- YES
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
13 shares @ 5.0¢·now 2.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.28
$-0.37
- YES
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25?
4272 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-61.68
- NO
Will Trump visit China by May 15?
2186 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-5.30
- YES
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?
229 shares @ 7.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-16.51
- NO
Will Donald Trump attend the G7 Summit?
151 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-5.00
- NO
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 23?
107 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 23, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?$6.02Jun 28, 02:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump attend the G7 Summit?$5.00Jun 13, 22:49 UTC
- TRADESELLBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?$5.02Jun 13, 22:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?$6.00Jun 13, 22:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?$10.00Jun 13, 22:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYHaiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5$5.06Jun 13, 22:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYHaiti vs. Scotland: Scotland O/U 1.5$5.06Jun 13, 22:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?$6.29Jun 13, 22:35 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?$3.99Jun 13, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?$11.14Jun 13, 22:33 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$4.08Jun 13, 22:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$6.00Jun 12, 18:12 UTC
- TRADESELLKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$6.19Jun 12, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$5.00Jun 12, 18:11 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026?$5.00Jun 12, 18:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$8.00Jun 12, 13:07 UTC
- REDEEMGolden Knights vs. Hurricanes$8.48Jun 12, 03:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$1.00Jun 12, 01:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYGolden Knights vs. Hurricanes$5.06Jun 11, 23:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYBab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30?$13.00Jun 11, 23:40 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
22% win rate over 9 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
9 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $10.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 28, 23:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 28, 02:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 9 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.