Last-News
0xabd1bf358b4e2ceb6c246bc3b0413418c124870e
Wallet digest
Activity score
82/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
96
Open notional
$553.03
Total PnL
$-800.34
Realised
$183.21
Win rate
84%
38 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 96- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1032 shares @ 8.5¢·now 12.7¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$130.51
$43.12
- YES
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31?
300 shares @ 66.5¢·now 29.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$88.50
$-111.00
- NO
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
200 shares @ 62.5¢·now 27.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$55.00
$-70.00
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
995 shares @ 10.0¢·now 3.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$38.80
$-60.89
- YES
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?
100 shares @ 6.9¢·now 33.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$33.20
$26.28
- YES
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
230 shares @ 23.9¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$28.75
$-26.25
- YES
Will USD-denominated stablecoin market share fall below 99% in 2026?
350 shares @ 16.0¢·now 8.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$28.00
$-28.10
- NO
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
200 shares @ 10.5¢·now 13.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.00
$6.00
- YES
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027?
350 shares @ 16.0¢·now 6.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$24.15
$-31.85
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
100 shares @ 27.0¢·now 20.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$20.05
$-6.95
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.02Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 27, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 26, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 25, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 24, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 23, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 22, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 21, 20:08 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 21, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 19, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 18, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 17, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 14, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 13, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 12, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 10, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
74/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
84% win rate over 38 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
6 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
38 closed markets, 84% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 6
- Avg trade size
- $14.35
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 18, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 38 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.