PoliticsExpires Dec 31, 2026
Creator

Nothing Ever Happens: 2026

Probability

75¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-2.0pp

24h Vol

$552.13

Liquidity

$19.6K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
NATO
Link
polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com
Type
Official government source
Confidence
extracted · high
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+4.0pp 7d
1007550250
75¢
Jul 21, 2026, 15:00 UTCJul 28, 2026, 07:00 UTC
updated 14:32:54 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-07-28T14-32Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 2pp over 24h

    Now 75¢; flat in the last hour.

  • 02
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $19.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

live monitoring
Trust transition

The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: NATO

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary official government source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 3729.5h

    LOW

Price movement

-2.0pp over the last 24h, now 75¢.

Biggest hourly move: +10.5pp at Jul 27, 02:00 UTC (to 77¢).

Show top 8 of 49 hourly moves
  • Jul 27, 08:00 UTC · +10.5pp → 76¢
  • Jul 27, 06:00 UTC · +9.5pp → 76¢
  • Jul 27, 05:00 UTC · +9.5pp → 76¢
  • Jul 27, 03:00 UTC · +9.5pp → 76¢
  • Jul 27, 02:00 UTC · +10.5pp → 77¢
  • Jul 27, 00:00 UTC · +9.5pp → 77¢
  • Jul 26, 23:00 UTC · +9.5pp → 77¢
  • Jul 26, 22:00 UTC · +9.5pp → 77¢
updated 14:32:54 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 14:32:54 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Politics

Market Description

This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime falls - Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’ - Jeffrey Epstein alive - Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate - Russia invades a NATO country - Trump acquires Greenland - 9.0 or above earthquake - Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) - Major meteor strike (250kt+) Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Politics

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

epstein

Reason

Epstein-case markets — DOJ / FBI / Congressional record release. Politics, not Unclassified.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026"?

As of Tue, 28 Jul 2026 14:32:54 GMT, YES is priced at 75% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -2.0pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and +4.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$552.13 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $694.5K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $19.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket