Nothing Ever Happens: 2026
Probability
55¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
+2.0pp
24h Vol
$421.94
Liquidity
$46.8K
Probability (last 7 days)
-9.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Heuristic summary, generated from the public market metrics above: probability movement, volume, liquidity, spread, signals, and resolution status.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 6002.5h
- 21:29SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 6003h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 21:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 55¢
- 20:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 55¢
- 18:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 54¢
- 16:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 55¢
- 14:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 55¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 53¢
- 11:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 53¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 54¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 52¢
- 06:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 52¢
- 05:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 52¢
- 03:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 53¢
- 02:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -10.0pp
to 53¢
- 00:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -9.5pp
to 53¢
- 23:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -8.0pp
to 53¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 53¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.0pp
to 52¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -5.5pp
to 53¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 51¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -7.5pp
to 54¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 59¢
- 1d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.0pp
to 59¢
- 2d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability down -6.5pp
to 57¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET: - Trump out as President - China invades Taiwan - Xi Jinping out - U.S. invades Iran - Iranian regime falls - Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’ - Jeffrey Epstein alive - Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate - Russia invades a NATO country - Trump acquires Greenland - 9.0 or above earthquake - Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6) - Major meteor strike (250kt+) Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”. The full rules for this market can be found here: https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
Resolution & Risk
MEDIUM risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Binary
- No primary resolution source listed — read the full market rules before acting.
- Wide spread (5.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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