Fortunate-Hazelnut
0xac907f33498dc8a1617d0e7a9d3f7d91debe5d06
Wallet digest
Activity score
48/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
31
Open notional
$739.62
Total PnL
$-20.5K
Realised
$-699.83
Win rate
13%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 31- YES
Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
536 shares @ 63.4¢·now 30.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$163.45
$-176.56
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
589 shares @ 15.1¢·now 20.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$118.04
$29.01
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
28748 shares @ 58.2¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$100.62
$-16.6K
- YES
Will Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2027?
235 shares @ 49.0¢·now 42.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$98.52
$-16.42
- YES
Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026?
268 shares @ 37.3¢·now 29.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$79.18
$-20.82
- YES
Will GMGN launch a token by December 31, 2026?
595 shares @ 52.4¢·now 10.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$62.48
$-249.52
- YES
Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027?
603 shares @ 16.6¢·now 10.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$60.33
$-39.67
- YES
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
26 shares @ 38.6¢·now 43.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$11.13
$1.13
- YES
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
667 shares @ 1.5¢·now 1.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$10.33
$0.33
- YES
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027?
34 shares @ 29.0¢·now 21.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.41
$-2.59
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$1.17Jul 27, 00:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- REWARD$1.96Jul 26, 00:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- REWARD$1.57Jul 25, 00:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 24, 00:11 UTC
- REWARD$1.09Jul 24, 00:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 23, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$1.16Jul 23, 00:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:15 UTC
- REWARD$1.08Jul 22, 00:00 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 20, 00:10 UTC
- REWARD$1.13Jul 20, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Daylight launch a token by December 31, 2027?$6.13Jul 19, 10:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
- REWARD$1.04Jul 18, 00:00 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
13% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
1 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 1
- Avg trade size
- $6.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 22, 00:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.