Puny-Cheesecake
0xaca4bac8be99ad591b4de2ecb310f250bc1db335
Wallet digest
Activity score
32/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
25
Open notional
$0.47
Total PnL
$-217.68
Realised
$-5.56
Win rate
0%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 25- YES
Will Grok AI beat T1 in 2026?
16 shares @ 7.0¢·now 2.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.47
$-0.64
- YES
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $184 in June?
421 shares @ 10.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-43.56
- DOWN
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on June 18?
375 shares @ 3.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$0.00
$-14.73
- YES
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $176 in June?
270 shares @ 7.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-18.87
- NO
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $180 end of June?
203 shares @ 4.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-8.35
- NO
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $144 in June?
141 shares @ 24.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-33.97
- YES
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
125 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be less than 55,000?$2.21Jul 18, 19:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be less than 55,000?$1.30Jul 18, 18:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be less than 55,000?$0.12Jul 18, 18:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $140B by December 31?$10.50Jul 15, 14:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31?$35.19Jul 15, 14:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Databricks' valuation hit (LOW) $125B by December 31?$55.59Jul 12, 21:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the official close price for the Nikkei 225 on the final trading day of December 2026 be less than 55,000?$28.22Jul 12, 21:45 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$0.65Jul 7, 11:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,200 (LOW) in December?$28.76Jul 7, 11:38 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $5,800 (LOW) in December?$2.70Jul 7, 11:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Crude Oil (CL) settle over $80 on the final trading day of June 2026?$0.30Jul 4, 20:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,200 (LOW) in December?$1.80Jun 30, 15:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn B200 Index be less than $4.00 on June 30, 2026?$5.31Jun 29, 15:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn H100 Index be less than $2.00 on June 30, 2026?$3.25Jun 29, 15:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Ornn H100 Index be between $2.60 and $2.90 on June 30, 2026?$26.39Jun 29, 15:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill NVIDIA (NVDA) hit (LOW) $192 in June?$20.00Jun 26, 14:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $280 in June?$72.00Jun 25, 14:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?$2.19Jun 24, 20:33 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (LOW) $375 in June?$57.00Jun 24, 18:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $420 Week of June 22 2026?$62.61Jun 24, 15:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 64/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $12.74
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 21, 00:04 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 18, 19:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.