Stylish-Archeology
0xacdadd78515ba63f6652e7fdc12cbd17f07e829b
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$2.04
Total PnL
$38.75
Realised
$49.90
Win rate
100%
6 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- YES
Viktor Orbán arrested by December 31?
4 shares @ 26.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.90
$-0.10
- NO
Will Ágnes Forsthoffer be the next President of Hungary?
1 shares @ 98.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$0.64
$-0.36
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
3 shares @ 39.0¢·now 19.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.50
$-0.50
- YES
Will the Carolina Panthers win Super Bowl 2026?
154 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-0.92
- YES
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Klára Dobrev?
126 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win Super Bowl 2026?
92 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-0.92
- YES
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026?
42 shares @ 2.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026?
30 shares @ 3.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026?
24 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-0.33
- YES
Will the Chicago Bears win Super Bowl 2026?
18 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 8, 2026$0.00
$-0.26
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Ágnes Forsthoffer be the next President of Hungary?$1.00Jul 28, 08:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYViktor Orbán arrested by December 31?$1.03Jul 22, 11:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET$1.05Jun 4, 22:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?$1.64May 14, 14:31 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals?$0.30Mar 12, 09:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals?$0.57Mar 12, 09:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026?$0.93Feb 9, 20:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the government shutdown last 5 days or more?$0.00Feb 4, 22:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the government shutdown last 6 days or more?$5.00Feb 4, 22:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill the government shutdown last 4 days or more?$1.03Feb 3, 10:00 UTC
- SPLITWill the government shutdown last 6 days or more?$5.00Feb 2, 15:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the government shutdown last 5 days or more?$2.10Feb 2, 13:42 UTC
- SPLITWill the government shutdown last 5 days or more?$5.00Feb 1, 22:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the government shutdown last 4 days or more?$1.00Feb 1, 22:00 UTC
- REDEEMSolana Up or Down - January 28, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$1.00Feb 1, 21:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026?$1.08Feb 1, 21:59 UTC
- TRADESELLSolana Up or Down - January 28, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$0.04Jan 28, 22:42 UTC
- SPLITSolana Up or Down - January 28, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET$1.00Jan 28, 22:34 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET$0.79Jan 27, 22:51 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - January 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET$0.39Jan 27, 22:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
20/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 6 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
20 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
6 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 20
- Avg trade size
- $2.43
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 18, 12:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 08:05 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 6 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.