Guilty-Trail
0xae5839b89d47738616264276ac1f0d77f936e5c5
Wallet digest
Activity score
83/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
58
Open notional
$319.52
Total PnL
$-87.29
Realised
$1.70
Win rate
69%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 58- NO
Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by June 30?
49 shares @ 99.0¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$49.05
$0.10
- NO
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?
31 shares @ 97.8¢·now 98.3¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$30.90
$0.13
- NO
Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa out as leader of Bahrain by June 30, 2026?
24 shares @ 98.1¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$24.15
$0.18
- NO
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
23 shares @ 90.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$19.89
$-0.57
- NO
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
18 shares @ 84.8¢·now 87.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$15.32
$0.39
- NO
Ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?
16 shares @ 94.1¢·now 96.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$15.25
$0.39
- NO
Modi out by December 31, 2026?
14 shares @ 93.3¢·now 90.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.13
$-0.36
- NO
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?
10 shares @ 98.6¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$10.04
$0.06
- YES
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in another Middle East/North Africa country?
4821 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$7.23
$-9.27
- NO
Any country withdraws from EU before 2027?
6 shares @ 94.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$5.79
$-0.03
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Bola Tinubu win the 2027 Nigerian Presidential Election?$1.50Jun 14, 11:33 UTC
- TRADESELLTamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?$4.43Jun 14, 05:21 UTC
- TRADESELLRodrigo Paz out as President of Bolivia by June 30, 2026?$4.60Jun 14, 03:36 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$1.12Jun 14, 02:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$4.70Jun 14, 02:22 UTC
- TRADESELLEx-Cuba leader Raul Castro in US custody by June 30?$4.83Jun 14, 01:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election?$3.76Jun 14, 00:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYMiguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?$4.87Jun 13, 21:05 UTC
- TRADESELLMasoud Pezeshkian out by June 30?$4.95Jun 13, 20:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?$4.99Jun 13, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?$4.99Jun 13, 16:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$4.99Jun 13, 16:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election?$4.99Jun 13, 16:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the National Regeneration Movement (Morena) win the most seats in the 2027 Mexico legislative election?$3.85Jun 13, 16:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran coup attempt by June 30?$4.99Jun 13, 15:44 UTC
- TRADESELLIran coup attempt by June 30?$4.88Jun 13, 12:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?$4.99Jun 13, 07:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYTamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30?$4.57Jun 13, 00:35 UTC
- TRADESELLMiguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30?$2.77Jun 12, 22:55 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Abelardo de la Espriella win between 40% and 45% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election?$4.93Jun 12, 22:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $4.24
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 8, 13:32 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 14, 11:33 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.