0xae608ecbef420a36d743e2846b864067a5eb9c28
0xae608ecbef420a36d743e2846b864067a5eb9c28
Wallet digest
Activity score
40/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
119
Open notional
$4.19
Total PnL
$-937.87
Realised
$-117.65
Win rate
8%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 119- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026?
2 shares @ 55.0¢·now 64.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.19
$0.18
- NO
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026?
1 shares @ 73.0¢·now 80.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.18
$0.11
- NO
US strike on Cuba by December 31?
2 shares @ 62.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.09
$0.07
- YES
Will BULK launch a token by December 31, 2026?
4 shares @ 32.0¢·now 19.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.72
$-0.46
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 10?
1434 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 10, 2026$0.00
$-65.75
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on June 7?
468 shares @ 5.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-25.34
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 35°C on June 7?
413 shares @ 6.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-25.72
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 7?
367 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 7, 2026$0.00
$-9.04
- YES
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on June 5?
225 shares @ 15.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 5, 2026$0.00
$-34.49
- YES
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-05-24?
209 shares @ 56.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-118.22
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYLoL: Team Secret Whales vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner$2.01Jul 5, 03:17 UTC
- REDEEMParaguay vs. France: Team to Advance$2.15Jul 4, 23:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYParaguay vs. France: Team to Advance$2.01Jul 4, 20:49 UTC
- REDEEMDegerfors IF vs. Malmo FF: O/U 0.5$2.08Jul 4, 16:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYDegerfors IF vs. Malmo FF: O/U 0.5$2.03Jul 4, 14:08 UTC
- REDEEMLoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs$2.35Jul 4, 13:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYLoL: Bilibili Gaming vs T1 (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Playoffs$2.06Jul 4, 10:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 4–8%?$1.11Jul 4, 08:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June?$1.58Jul 1, 06:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYCounter-Strike: OlyBet SB vs Subtop De France (BO3) - European Pro League Series 8 Closed Qualifier Group A$2.15Jun 25, 15:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYDota 2: Virtus.pro vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winner$2.02Jun 25, 14:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYDota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy - Game 1 Winner$2.03Jun 25, 10:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 25?$5.06Jun 25, 08:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 25?$5.02Jun 25, 08:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 25?$5.01Jun 25, 05:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on June 25?$5.03Jun 25, 05:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Panama City be 32°C on June 24?$5.00Jun 25, 05:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Germany win on 2026-06-25?$2.03Jun 25, 03:29 UTC
- REDEEMCzechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 1.5$2.08Jun 25, 03:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYCzechia vs. Mexico: Mexico O/U 1.5$2.01Jun 25, 02:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
8% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 42/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $3.53
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 24, 09:51 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 5, 03:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.