Outrageous-Belief
0xaef7d67ef5e59af928db8a11e229722002280e53
Wallet digest
Activity score
73/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$210.10
Total PnL
$-169.87
Realised
$-3.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?
100 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$100.00
$6.00
- NO
Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?
100 shares @ 86.0¢·now 90.1¢·exp Oct 21, 2026$90.10
$4.10
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
20 shares @ 84.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$20.00
$3.20
- YES
Will Trump talk to Nicolás Maduro in April?
231 shares @ 4.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-10.64
- YES
Will Pam Bondi be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
200 shares @ 26.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-53.80
- RAPTORS
Raptors vs. Celtics
100 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 10, 2026$0.00
$-24.00
- YES
Will Trump meet with Volodymyr Zelenskyy in April 2026?
82 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-9.02
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - December 30, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET
45 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 30, 2025$0.00
$-21.60
- YES
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in April?
43 shares @ 15.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 1, 2026$0.00
$-6.51
- YES
Will BW Industrial Holdings’ market cap be between $140M and $155M at market close on IPO day?
42 shares @ 18.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 27, 2026$0.00
$-7.56
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill LeBron James retire before next NBA season?$86.00May 14, 23:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?$73.63May 14, 12:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Xi handshake last 10–15 seconds during the day of their next meeting in 2026?$20.37May 14, 12:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?$16.93May 14, 11:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?$15.89Apr 12, 16:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israel conduct military action in Greater Beirut on April 7, 2026?$6.90Apr 11, 08:36 UTC
- REWARD$33.54Apr 11, 00:00 UTC
- REWARD$0.26Apr 11, 00:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Caroline Elliott win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia leadership election?$42.00Apr 10, 21:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?$6.89Apr 10, 17:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?$13.50Apr 10, 12:47 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Rumen Radev be the next prime minister of Bulgaria after the 2026 parliamentary election?$6.30Apr 10, 07:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz in April?$2.45Apr 10, 06:08 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $3.20 in April?$7.28Apr 10, 06:07 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Jason Perry win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?$18.91Apr 10, 06:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill TISZA win 46-50% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?$11.76Apr 10, 06:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill TISZA win 46-50% of the national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election?$11.76Apr 10, 06:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.40 in April?$12.00Apr 10, 05:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jason Perry win the 2026 London Borough of Croydon mayoral election?$18.91Apr 10, 04:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Virginia constitutional amendment referendum pass by 15%+?$6.60Apr 10, 01:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $15.33
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 9, 07:59 UTC
- Last active
- May 14, 23:21 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.