SportsExpires Oct 21, 2026

Will LeBron James retire before next NBA season?

Probability

15¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

+2.0pp

24h Vol

$423.64

Liquidity

$5.4K

Probability (last 7 days)

-1.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 22:00Apr 25, 2026, 20:33
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  1. 1

    Up 2pp over 24h

    Now 15¢; flat in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 4275h with open resolution ambiguity.

  3. 3

    Thin liquidity

    Only $5.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 4275.4h

    LOW
  • 20:35Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 4275h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW

Price movement

+2.0pp over the last 24h, now 15¢.

Biggest hourly move: +5.0pp at 2d ago (to 17¢).

Show all 18 hour-by-hour ticks
  • 12:00 · +4.0pp → 16¢
  • 11:00 · +3.0pp → 16¢
  • 09:00 · +3.0pp → 16¢
  • 08:00 · +3.0pp → 16¢
  • 06:00 · +3.5pp → 17¢
  • 05:00 · +3.5pp → 17¢
  • 03:00 · +3.0pp → 16¢
  • 1d ago · -3.5pp → 13¢
  • 1d ago · -3.5pp → 13¢
  • 2d ago · +3.0pp → 17¢
  • 2d ago · +4.5pp → 17¢
  • 2d ago · +5.0pp → 17¢
  • 2d ago · +5.0pp → 17¢
  • 2d ago · +5.0pp → 17¢
  • 2d ago · +5.0pp → 17¢
  • 2d ago · +5.0pp → 17¢
  • 2d ago · +4.0pp → 17¢
  • 2d ago · +4.0pp → 17¢
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if LeBron James retires from the NBA before the start of the 2026-2027 NBA season. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An official announcement from James that he is retiring will qualify even if his official retirement has not yet occurred, as long as the announced retirement is stated to take effect before the start of the 2026-2027 NBA season. Announcements that he will retire after the start of the 2026-2027 NBA season will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from LeBron James, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Oct 21, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
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