0xaeffa48a6cda74546a6c088d7e9a76b28ea20390
0xaeffa48a6cda74546a6c088d7e9a76b28ea20390
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
33
Open notional
$119.95
Total PnL
$301.83
Realised
$628.69
Win rate
59%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 33- YES
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to no prison time?
69 shares @ 29.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$68.93
$48.94
- UP
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 6PM ET
14 shares @ 41.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$13.53
$7.91
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET
11 shares @ 53.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$11.13
$5.18
- NO
Internet Access restored in Iran by March 31, 2026?
7 shares @ 90.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$6.53
$0.65
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET
4 shares @ 53.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$4.03
$1.89
- UP
Solana Up or Down - March 15, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET
4 shares @ 53.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$3.86
$1.81
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET
4 shares @ 53.1¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$3.79
$1.78
- NO
Will Mazatlán FC win on 2026-03-15?
3 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 16, 2026$3.46
$0.31
- DOWN
Ethereum Up or Down - March 15, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET
3 shares @ 57.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$2.52
$1.08
- ETERNAL FIRE
Counter-Strike: Omega vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #18 Group Stage
2 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$2.17
$0.20
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?$1.38Mar 20, 13:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?$0.64Mar 20, 11:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?$0.80Mar 20, 02:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?$0.11Mar 20, 02:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?$0.11Mar 20, 02:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?$0.49Mar 20, 02:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?$0.49Mar 20, 02:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?$2.24Mar 20, 02:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?$0.23Mar 20, 02:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?$10.00Mar 17, 22:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?$2.44Mar 17, 22:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?$4.11Mar 17, 22:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?$0.16Mar 17, 20:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?$4.00Mar 17, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 5 and 10 years in prison?$0.80Mar 17, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?$0.15Mar 17, 20:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?$0.48Mar 17, 10:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?$0.48Mar 17, 09:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?$2.31Mar 17, 09:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to more than 30 years in prison?$0.09Mar 17, 08:29 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
59% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 47/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.19
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 16, 02:47 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 20, 13:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.