Bumpy-Commerce
0xaf056b29c00f7d8118862f704244b945868ad04f
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
6
Open notional
$3.46
Total PnL
$-6.53
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- YES
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
3 shares @ 63.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$2.02
$0.02
- UP
Dogecoin Up or Down on July 26?
1 shares @ 69.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 26, 2026$1.45
$0.45
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $200K in July?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2025$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?
9 shares @ 11.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Dr ‘Aisake Valu Eke be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the election?
5 shares @ 65.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Israel x Hamas ceasefire by October 31?
2 shares @ 81.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2025$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYDogecoin Up or Down on July 26?$1.02Jul 25, 19:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$2.03Jul 25, 19:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?$1.17Jul 25, 19:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Banksy create a new mural or street artwork by December 31?$1.78Jul 25, 19:11 UTC
- TRADESELLUS national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?$2.21Jul 25, 19:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Sweden Democrats (SD) win the second most seats in the 2026 Swedish parliamentary election?$1.01Jun 22, 20:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Banksy create a new mural or street artwork by December 31?$2.01Jun 22, 19:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS national Bitcoin reserve before 2027?$2.04May 27, 19:31 UTC
- TRADESELLPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?$1.82May 27, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?$2.00Apr 2, 20:19 UTC
- REDEEMTrump approval Up or Down this week?$2.63Apr 2, 20:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump approval Up or Down this week?$2.00Mar 23, 19:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?$3.03Mar 23, 19:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Sentimental Value win Best International Feature Film at the 98th Academy Awards?$2.00Feb 19, 19:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?$0.99Feb 19, 19:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?$2.05Feb 19, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by March 31?$2.00Jan 26, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?$1.00Jan 26, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS) win the most seats in the 2026 Slovenian parliamentary election?$1.00Jan 26, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dr ‘Aisake Valu Eke be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the election?$3.00Dec 9, 19:58 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
38 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 38
- Avg trade size
- $1.98
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 11, 19:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 19:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.