Critical-Banker
0xaf1f63f6776ccdff2362874d0f76c8b527329dc5
Wallet digest
Activity score
66/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
38
Open notional
$464.72
Total PnL
$-115.09
Realised
$-30.19
Win rate
27%
15 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- NO
Will Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
365 shares @ 85.7¢·now 86.0¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$313.91
$0.91
- YES
Will Linke win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
137 shares @ 32.9¢·now 33.0¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$45.15
$0.15
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
53 shares @ 57.0¢·now 57.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$30.26
$0.26
- YES
Will CDU win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
81 shares @ 28.6¢·now 26.5¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$21.51
$-1.69
- YES
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?
60 shares @ 22.7¢·now 22.4¢·exp Sep 20, 2026$13.44
$-0.18
- YES
Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
37 shares @ 27.4¢·now 30.9¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$11.30
$1.30
- YES
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election?
23 shares @ 21.7¢·now 25.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$5.98
$0.88
- YES
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election?
131 shares @ 3.0¢·now 3.1¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$4.13
$0.13
- YES
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
10 shares @ 52.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.80
$-1.20
- YES
Israel closes its airspace by July 31?
45 shares @ 11.0¢·now 7.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$3.27
$-1.73
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Péter Bárándy be the next President of Hungary?$1.00Jul 28, 20:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Péter Bárándy be the next President of Hungary?$1.01Jul 28, 20:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$314.79Jul 28, 13:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$14.04Jul 28, 11:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$195.06Jul 28, 11:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$30.00Jul 26, 12:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$5.00Jul 25, 18:26 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$84.16Jul 25, 18:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$100.85Jul 25, 10:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$100.85Jul 25, 10:16 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$300.12Jul 25, 02:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 24?$288.00Jul 24, 10:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Grüne win the most seats in the 2026 Berlin state elections?$8.08Jul 22, 10:55 UTC
- REDEEMIsraeli parliament dissolved by July 31?$5.01Jul 17, 04:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$20.00Jul 16, 23:50 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by August 31?$19.64Jul 16, 23:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYEngland vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$3.08Jul 15, 20:50 UTC
- TRADESELLEngland vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$28.08Jul 15, 20:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYEngland vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$5.12Jul 15, 19:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYEngland vs. Argentina: Team to Advance$15.36Jul 15, 19:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
27% win rate over 15 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
15 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $48.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 7, 18:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 20:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 15 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.