Agile-Toughguy
0xaf3e8de770833a3f0398f3598df6b156c4c0b896
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
9
Open notional
$662.42
Total PnL
$-125.68
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu be the top grossing movie of 2026?
600 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.6¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$597.30
$0.30
- NO
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
20 shares @ 97.2¢·now 99.9¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$19.97
$0.53
- YES
Variational FDV above $200M one day after launch?
12 shares @ 90.0¢·now 96.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$11.26
$0.77
- NO
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
10 shares @ 98.6¢·now 99.3¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$9.93
$0.07
- NO
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
10 shares @ 97.6¢·now 98.0¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$9.80
$0.04
- NO
Will Carlos Roberto Massa Júnior win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
5 shares @ 95.0¢·now 99.9¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$4.99
$0.24
- NO
Will the New York Yankees win the 2026 World Series?
5 shares @ 94.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$4.60
$-0.40
- NO
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
5 shares @ 94.4¢·now 86.2¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$4.57
$-0.43
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET
200 shares @ 63.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$0.00
$-126.81
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET$130.06Jun 9, 04:02 UTC
- REDEEMHornets vs. Bulls$0.00Jun 9, 03:59 UTC
- REDEEMThunder vs. Pistons$0.00Jun 9, 03:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy booster?$0.00Jun 9, 03:59 UTC
- REDEEMMegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?$0.00Jun 9, 03:59 UTC
- REDEEMThunder vs. Raptors$0.00Jun 9, 03:59 UTC
- REDEEMMagic vs. Lakers$0.00Jun 9, 03:59 UTC
- REDEEMMicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?$0.00Jun 9, 03:59 UTC
- REDEEMMegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1.5B one day after launch?$0.00Jun 9, 03:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be at least 1,100 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?$0.00Jun 9, 03:59 UTC
- REDEEMTimberwolves vs. Nuggets$0.00Jun 9, 03:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.00Jun 9, 03:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League?$0.00Jun 9, 03:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill MetaMask launch a token in 2025?$0.00Jun 9, 03:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 Masters tournament?$0.00Jun 9, 03:59 UTC
- REDEEMEthereum Up or Down - October 30, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET$0.00Jun 9, 03:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple (AAPL) be the top performing Magnificent 7 company during the week of February 16?$0.00Jun 9, 03:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Amy Madigan win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.00Jun 9, 03:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Michael B. Jordan win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.00Jun 9, 03:59 UTC
- REDEEMUS government shutdown by October 1?$0.00Jun 9, 03:59 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 5
- Avg trade size
- $167.84
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 22, 12:03 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 9, 04:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.