Reasonable-Polarisation
0xaf839b903448617b2d8f916573dc00b334a1caf7
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$26.88
Total PnL
$-7.33
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Bank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 meeting?
16 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.8¢·exp Jun 18, 2026$16.00
$0.00
- NO
Will Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30?
6 shares @ 99.3¢·now 98.9¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$6.08
$-0.02
- NO
Will Silver (SI) settle over $140 on the final trading day of June 2026?
5 shares @ 99.1¢·now 99.1¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.80
$0.00
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?
1010 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 9, 2025$0.00
$-1.01
- YES
Will Solana reach $350 in October?
650 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 1, 2025$0.00
$-1.30
- YES
Will Siaosi Pōhiva be the next Prime Minister of Tonga after the election?
550 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 30, 2025$0.00
$-2.20
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from November 28 to December 5, 2025?
350 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 5, 2025$0.00
$-1.40
- YES
Will the highest temperature in New York City be 57°F or higher on November 24?
280 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 24, 2025$0.00
$-1.40
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic’s valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30?$6.10Jun 6, 22:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Silver (SI) settle over $140 on the final trading day of June 2026?$4.80Jun 6, 00:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBank of England decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 meeting?$16.00Jun 4, 23:29 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?$178.13Jun 4, 06:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 3, 2026?$177.60Jun 2, 16:41 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May?$66.77Jun 1, 11:53 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?$1.00Jun 1, 11:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?$111.55Jun 1, 11:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $80,000 in May?$1.00May 30, 21:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,800 in May?$111.13May 30, 20:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$5.01May 30, 07:09 UTC
- REDEEMWill Microsoft be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on May 31?$6.01May 30, 06:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,600 in May?$66.52May 30, 03:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $30 in May?$1.60May 29, 23:42 UTC
- REDEEMSolstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?$164.60May 26, 22:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYSolstice FDV above $150M one day after launch?$162.46May 26, 18:27 UTC
- REDEEMNexus FDV above $200M one day after launch?$162.37May 21, 23:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYNexus FDV above $200M one day after launch?$161.47May 21, 04:24 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$95.43May 17, 02:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel be in the top 10 at Eurovision 2026?$88.15May 16, 15:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 18
- Avg trade size
- $54.72
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 29, 02:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 6, 22:46 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.