Monthly-Riding
0xafa470b7490165b6cd328a112d6f7373bdd90dfe
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
45
Open notional
$1.4K
Total PnL
$-3.95
Realised
$33.63
Win rate
100%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 45- NO
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
300 shares @ 90.4¢·now 95.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$287.25
$16.15
- NO
Kimi K4 released by December 31, 2026?
284 shares @ 59.7¢·now 85.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$242.52
$73.10
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
120 shares @ 89.5¢·now 96.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$115.26
$7.86
- NO
Will Dune: Part Three be delayed?
109 shares @ 87.9¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 18, 2026$95.45
$-0.45
- NO
Will China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 5.5%?
70 shares @ 92.4¢·now 98.2¢·exp Oct 20, 2026$69.13
$4.10
- YES
Will the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 350m by August 31?
59 shares @ 98.3¢·now 99.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$58.23
$0.41
- NO
Kimi K4 released by October 31, 2026?
31 shares @ 73.7¢·now 94.5¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$29.00
$6.39
- YES
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.1% and 1.5%?
101 shares @ 38.9¢·now 27.5¢·exp Jan 10, 2027$27.77
$-11.55
- NO
Gianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?
40 shares @ 65.0¢·now 67.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.00
$1.00
- NO
Will KuPS qualify for the League Phase of the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League?
49 shares @ 98.2¢·now 51.5¢·exp Sep 9, 2026$25.34
$-22.98
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 280m?$37.20Aug 4, 03:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Aug 4, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYGianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?$16.71Aug 3, 21:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYGianni Infantino out as FIFA President by December 31?$9.29Aug 3, 20:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Loki die in Avengers: Doomsday?$2.39Aug 3, 19:46 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be 6+ Rampages at Dota 2 EWC?$5.00Aug 3, 10:06 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 5.5%?$5.00Aug 3, 09:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China GDP growth in Q3 2026 be at least 5.5%?$5.00Aug 3, 09:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be 6+ Rampages at Dota 2 EWC?$3.75Aug 3, 08:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%?$21.61Aug 3, 07:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.1% and 1.5%?$19.93Aug 3, 07:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 1.1% and 1.5%?$20.00Aug 3, 07:13 UTC
- REDEEMBlast Bounty 2026 Season 2: Anyone to AWP Ace?$220.00Aug 3, 00:53 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Aug 3, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill There be 7-9 Knife Kills at Blast Bounty 2026 Season 2?$539.09Aug 2, 21:46 UTC
- TRADESELLWill There be 10+ Knife Kills at Blast Bounty 2026 Season 2?$0.42Aug 2, 14:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill There be 7-9 Knife Kills at Blast Bounty 2026 Season 2?$308.19Aug 2, 14:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Loki die in Avengers: Doomsday?$21.00Aug 2, 12:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the total domestic gross for The Odyssey be at least 350m by August 31?$57.87Aug 2, 05:26 UTC
- YIELD$0.04Aug 2, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
19/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 56/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $23.11
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 31, 04:50 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 4, 03:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.