Playful-Quest
0xaffd48725d43bdb62a41c8f81470a098a4c1b072
Wallet digest
Activity score
96/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
5
Open notional
$824.39
Total PnL
$85.42
Realised
$8.21
Win rate
50%
4 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will Axiom launch a token by December 31, 2026?
886 shares @ 81.0¢·now 90.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$797.40
$79.74
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Michigan governor race in 2026?
25 shares @ 80.0¢·now 83.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$20.88
$0.88
- NO
Israel x Syria security agreement by June 30?
6 shares @ 59.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$6.00
$2.46
- YES
Freddie Mac IPO before 2027?
1 shares @ 30.0¢·now 11.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.11
$-0.19
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?
13 shares @ 45.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-5.68
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?$0.00Jun 18, 06:35 UTC
- REDEEMRobinhood launches prediction market through MIAXdx by March 31?$0.00Jun 18, 06:35 UTC
- REDEEMSt. Louis Cardinals vs. Miami Marlins$54.00Jun 18, 06:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Supreme Court rule on Trump's tarriffs by January 31?$0.00Jun 18, 06:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill the Chicago Bears be eliminated in the Conference Championship Round?$0.00Jun 18, 06:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill FC Juárez win on 2026-02-22?$0.00Jun 18, 06:35 UTC
- REDEEMOver $22M committed to the Space public sale?$0.00Jun 18, 06:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill the US strike Iran next?$0.00Jun 18, 06:35 UTC
- REDEEMMid-America Christian Evangels vs. Campbell Fighting Camels$321.50Jun 18, 06:35 UTC
- REDEEMLevante UD vs. Villarreal CF: O/U 2.5$0.00Jun 18, 06:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill Verizon/Visible run an Ad during Super Bowl LX?$0.00Jun 18, 06:35 UTC
- REDEEMManchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5$1.2KJun 18, 06:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYManchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5$327.24Apr 23, 11:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYManchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5$341.82Apr 23, 11:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYManchester City FC vs. Crystal Palace FC: O/U 1.5$313.47Apr 23, 11:12 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?$70.29Apr 13, 16:35 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael x Hamas ceasefire cancelled by June 30?$125.29Apr 12, 21:39 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?$60.03Apr 12, 01:24 UTC
- TRADESELLWill TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?$378.14Apr 11, 19:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) finish with the second-most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?$93.24Apr 11, 19:01 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
18/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 4 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
4 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $252.94
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 15, 10:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 18, 06:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 4 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.