Lustrous-Doorway
0xb12897c1a963e73a3e1682398c03fce18d57cf58
Wallet digest
Activity score
64/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
13
Open notional
$14.7K
Total PnL
$-10.8K
Realised
$-236.20
Win rate
60%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 13- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
18651 shares @ 26.8¢·now 27.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$5.0K
$30.72
- YES
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
147533 shares @ 3.1¢·now 3.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$4.5K
$-57.24
- YES
Will SpaceX acquire Cursor by December 31, 2026?
2876 shares @ 75.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.9K
$696.84
- NO
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
1366 shares @ 61.0¢·now 57.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$779.28
$-53.96
- YES
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
25000 shares @ 1.2¢·now 2.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$587.50
$287.50
- YES
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
1057 shares @ 49.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$586.71
$68.72
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
1471 shares @ 34.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$345.59
$-154.41
- YES
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel?
1000 shares @ 2.5¢·now 4.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$39.50
$14.50
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?
34527 shares @ 13.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-4.6K
- YES
Iran coup attempt by June 30?
11558 shares @ 28.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.3K
Recent activity
- YIELD$1.02Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$1.02Jul 28, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$1.00Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.99Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$1.00Jul 25, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.99Jul 24, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.98Jul 23, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.97Jul 22, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$1.00Jul 21, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.95Jul 20, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.95Jul 19, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.94Jul 18, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.94Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.94Jul 16, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.95Jul 15, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.95Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.93Jul 13, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.88Jul 12, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.92Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.92Jul 10, 00:15 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
23/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
60% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 10, 00:10 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.