0xb146adbda69fae13388b7cfddfb611b37b7bc098
0xb146adbda69fae13388b7cfddfb611b37b7bc098
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
98
Open notional
$1.7K
Total PnL
$15.63
Realised
$335.82
Win rate
88%
26 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 98- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31?
187 shares @ 64.1¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$186.56
$66.55
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
123 shares @ 85.3¢·now 89.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$110.50
$5.16
- YES
Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
87 shares @ 86.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$75.25
$0.43
- YES
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
121 shares @ 68.6¢·now 57.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$69.79
$-13.44
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
140 shares @ 48.5¢·now 44.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$62.31
$-5.59
- NO
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 by December 31, 2026?
84 shares @ 68.0¢·now 70.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$59.10
$2.10
- NO
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in July?
54 shares @ 83.0¢·now 99.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$53.48
$8.62
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
91 shares @ 63.0¢·now 55.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$49.84
$-7.25
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
255 shares @ 27.7¢·now 19.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$49.26
$-21.14
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026?
394 shares @ 21.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$49.20
$-33.50
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.02Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMTargu Mures: Francesca Jones vs Chloe Paquet$0.00Jul 28, 15:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Base launch a token by December 31, 2027?$11.34Jul 28, 03:24 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Samuel Alito announce his retirement by December 31, 2026?$25.33Jul 27, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYTargu Mures: Francesca Jones vs Chloe Paquet$19.05Jul 27, 15:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill Tadej Pogačar win the 2026 Tour De France?$0.00Jul 27, 01:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in July?$26.37Jul 27, 01:22 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 27, 00:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?$7.21Jul 26, 21:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Arc launch a token by December 31 2026?$20.02Jul 26, 18:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?$11.22Jul 26, 15:01 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?$29.43Jul 26, 13:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Hungarian Grand Prix?$2.40Jul 26, 13:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$6.86Jul 26, 12:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$6.29Jul 26, 09:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYNATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026?$8.20Jul 26, 08:33 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- REDEEMUFC Fight Night: Wellington Turman vs. Islam Dulatov (Welterweight, Main Card)$17.77Jul 25, 22:51 UTC
- REDEEMUFC Fight Night: Santiago Ponzinibbio vs. Sam Patterson (Welterweight, Prelims)$2.93Jul 25, 22:42 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
53/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
88% win rate over 26 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
26 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $16.63
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 08:38 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 26 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.