Scary-Handlebar
0xb1615ea2a36c1edd4a3b67ce9fd7e8aa6d9c9132
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
163
Open notional
$2.9K
Total PnL
$-4.6K
Realised
$35.99
Win rate
91%
11 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 163- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
3000 shares @ 93.6¢·now 96.2¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.9K
$75.50
- NO
Will Anthropic flip BTC by December 31?
200 shares @ 57.0¢·now 29.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$59.00
$-55.00
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
400 shares @ 70.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-280.00
- NO
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
400 shares @ 83.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 15, 2026$0.00
$-333.00
- TEAM SPIRIT
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - PREMIER SERIES Playoffs
371 shares @ 71.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 8, 2026$0.00
$-266.54
- NO
Will claude-opus-4-6-thinking have the best AI model on May 16, 2026?
367 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 16, 2026$0.00
$-21.70
- BILIBILI GAMING
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs JD Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup China Qualifier Phase 2
350 shares @ 91.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 13, 2026$0.00
$-319.28
- YES
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T?
200 shares @ 60.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$0.00
$-120.00
- YES
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
200 shares @ 17.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-34.00
- UP
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on April 2?
200 shares @ 6.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 2, 2026$0.00
$-12.00
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.26Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.26Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.26Jul 21, 20:09 UTC
- YIELD$0.26Jul 21, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.26Jul 19, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.26Jul 18, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.26Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.26Jul 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.26Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.26Jul 14, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.26Jul 13, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.26Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.26Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.26Jul 10, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.26Jul 9, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.26Jul 8, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.26Jul 7, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.26Jul 6, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.26Jul 5, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.26Jul 4, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
27/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
91% win rate over 11 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
16 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 66/100.
11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 16
- Avg trade size
- $27.26
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 22, 03:13 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 11 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.