Exalted-Achievement
0xb1a1985278c50a25758e2e25a217d084706add34
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
102
Open notional
$8.8K
Total PnL
$-10.2K
Realised
$400.90
Win rate
50%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 102- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
2941 shares @ 77.8¢·now 74.1¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$2.2K
$-111.60
- NOTHING
Nothing Ever Happens: July
1535 shares @ 72.2¢·now 72.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.1K
$8.16
- YES
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July Meeting?
1262 shares @ 58.9¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$801.63
$57.50
- NO
Will Core PCE YoY be 3.5% in June?
734 shares @ 72.7¢·now 93.4¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$685.44
$151.94
- YES
Will Core PCE YoY be 3.3% or less in June?
780 shares @ 61.5¢·now 76.5¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$596.39
$116.96
- NO
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in July?
606 shares @ 91.0¢·now 95.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$577.15
$25.65
- NO
Will Core PCE MoM be 0.3% in June?
464 shares @ 49.2¢·now 92.8¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$430.27
$202.30
- NO
Will Warsh say "Inflation" 40+ times during July Press Conference?
447 shares @ 69.8¢·now 63.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$284.05
$-28.03
- YES
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 52.0 and 54.9 in July?
343 shares @ 53.6¢·now 71.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$245.15
$61.33
- YES
Visa (V) Q2 payments volume growth (constant dollars) 8.5%-9.5%?
469 shares @ 45.0¢·now 42.5¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$199.32
$-11.72
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Russia make no change to the key rate after the July Meeting?$92.92Jul 23, 23:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Humana (HUM) beat quarterly earnings?$4.37Jul 23, 22:36 UTC
- REDEEMIntel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) 38%-40%?$0.00Jul 23, 22:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill SS&C (SSNC) beat quarterly earnings?$114.33Jul 23, 22:15 UTC
- REDEEMIntel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) 40%-42%?$13.00Jul 23, 22:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill Intel (INTC) Q2 Data Center & AI revenue be above $5.5B?$80.00Jul 23, 22:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Intel (INTC) Q2 Foundry revenue be above $5.5B?$282.01Jul 23, 22:06 UTC
- REDEEMWill Intel (INTC) Q2 Foundry revenue be above $5B?$5.00Jul 23, 22:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill IMAX (IMAX) beat quarterly earnings?$24.58Jul 23, 21:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYMoscow air traffic suspended by July 25?$27.18Jul 23, 20:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYMoscow air traffic suspended by July 25?$2.50Jul 23, 20:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYMoscow air traffic suspended by July 25?$6.00Jul 23, 19:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYMoscow air traffic suspended by July 31?$118.00Jul 23, 19:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYMoscow air traffic suspended by July 31?$16.17Jul 23, 19:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill T-Mobile US (TMUS) beat quarterly earnings?$170.27Jul 23, 10:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYIntel (INTC) Q2 adjusted gross margin (non-GAAP) 40%-42%?$2.47Jul 23, 10:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET$15.90Jul 22, 12:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET$103.36Jul 22, 12:31 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET$33.48Jul 22, 12:28 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 22, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET$8.30Jul 22, 12:28 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
28/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
50% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 60/100.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $59.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 21, 21:57 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 23:25 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.