Awesome-Availability
0xb1ca909e848cc24ec4e220ce1c453bc290c51705
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$1.0M
Total PnL
$49.2K
Realised
$29.0K
Win rate
71%
35 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
243000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$134.9K
$13.4K
- NO
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
243000 shares @ 50.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$108.1K
$-13.4K
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
85673 shares @ 77.0¢·now 73.2¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$62.7K
$-3.3K
- NO
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
52000 shares @ 84.3¢·now 91.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$47.6K
$3.7K
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
51000 shares @ 96.1¢·now 91.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$46.5K
$-2.5K
- YES
Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?
46536 shares @ 81.2¢·now 98.6¢·exp Jul 27, 2026$45.9K
$8.1K
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
42000 shares @ 97.2¢·now 97.2¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$40.8K
$-23.94
- NO
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026?
33000 shares @ 94.2¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$32.9K
$1.8K
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
35999 shares @ 89.3¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$32.6K
$449.99
- NO
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
30000 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$29.8K
$-45.00
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$149.00Jul 25, 03:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jennifer Austria Barzaga win the special election to fill the Cavite 4th congressional district seat in the Philippine House of Representatives?$2.00Jul 25, 03:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jennifer Austria Barzaga win the special election to fill the Cavite 4th congressional district seat in the Philippine House of Representatives?$0.28Jul 25, 03:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jennifer Austria Barzaga win the special election to fill the Cavite 4th congressional district seat in the Philippine House of Representatives?$8.02Jul 25, 03:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Jennifer Austria Barzaga win the special election to fill the Cavite 4th congressional district seat in the Philippine House of Representatives?$1.0KJul 25, 03:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$147.70Jul 25, 03:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$447.38Jul 25, 03:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Janet Mills be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$0.01Jul 25, 03:28 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$30.00Jul 25, 03:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$30.00Jul 25, 03:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$88.31Jul 25, 03:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill UPND win the most seats in the 2026 Zambia National Assembly Election?$271.98Jul 25, 03:09 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$15.72Jul 25, 03:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?$78.04Jul 25, 03:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31?$267.21Jul 25, 02:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran Reconstruction Funding be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?$42.00Jul 25, 02:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$3.7KJul 25, 02:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYNew pandemic in 2026?$1.03Jul 25, 01:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$10.9KJul 25, 01:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$56.09Jul 25, 00:46 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentLedger volume
$81.2K
Trades
2
Buy share
76%
Window
May 22, 03:30 UTC → Jul 9, 23:45 UTC
- SELLWill the Iranian regime fall by June 30?$19.6K@98¢Jun 9, 00:02 UTC
- BUYWill Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?$39.9K@100¢May 22, 03:23 UTC
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
72/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
71% win rate over 35 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
43 live trades, 3 ledger trades, copy-risk 44/100.
35 closed markets, 71% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
76%
Sample
limited
3 ledger trades
Top market concentration
Will Gillian Sherratt win the 2026 Dublin-central by-election?
$39.9K · 49% of recorded whale volume
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $440.23
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 24, 07:22 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 25, 03:51 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 35 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.