Dry-Chromolithograph
0xb1fea3922a1998248cf2ae51f740b9be2bb7423a
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
134
Open notional
$4.2K
Total PnL
$-2.4K
Realised
$1.8K
Win rate
55%
42 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 134- NO
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by December 31?
1868 shares @ 14.9¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$924.46
$645.77
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?
1546 shares @ 22.9¢·now 36.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$556.47
$202.41
- NO
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31?
2571 shares @ 10.5¢·now 15.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$385.65
$114.29
- NO
Will any AI model reach 1575 Math Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
859 shares @ 29.0¢·now 33.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$283.36
$34.59
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $50M one day after launch?
2701 shares @ 5.4¢·now 9.7¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$260.61
$115.62
- NO
Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
330 shares @ 64.0¢·now 57.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$188.07
$-23.13
- NO
US x China tariff agreement by December 31?
1591 shares @ 16.8¢·now 11.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$174.99
$-93.01
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $200M one day after launch?
750 shares @ 18.9¢·now 20.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$153.75
$12.25
- NO
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1500?
213 shares @ 60.9¢·now 68.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$145.91
$16.29
- NO
Will Ukraine target Moscow by August 31, 2026?
403 shares @ 18.4¢·now 21.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$84.63
$10.37
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Meta have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?$0.02Jul 29, 13:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 23?$2.37Jul 29, 13:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 30?$50.00Jul 29, 12:41 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$83.23Jul 29, 12:38 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$1.00Jul 29, 12:36 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$58.25Jul 29, 12:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$50.37Jul 29, 12:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$47.00Jul 29, 12:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$4.63Jul 29, 12:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of September 2026?$0.01Jul 29, 10:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$113.88Jul 29, 09:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$125.53Jul 29, 09:52 UTC
- TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$87.72Jul 29, 09:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$6.00Jul 29, 09:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?$90.17Jul 29, 09:50 UTC
- TRADESELLPredict.fun FDV above $100M one day after launch?$60.44Jul 29, 09:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?$93.52Jul 29, 09:26 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?$32.00Jul 29, 09:24 UTC
- TRADESELLIran military action against a Gulf State on July 27?$0.73Jul 29, 09:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 29?$22.02Jul 29, 09:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
55% win rate over 42 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
48 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
42 closed markets, 55% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 48
- Avg trade size
- $30.34
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 27, 21:02 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 13:35 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 42 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.