Will any AI model reach 1580 Coding Arena Score by December 31, 2026?
Probability
60¢
1h
+2.0pp
24h
+4.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$560.14
Probability (last 7 days)
-5.5pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 1
Up 4pp over 24h
Now 60¢; +2.0pp in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5976h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 3
Wide spread — 64.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5975.7h
- 00:17SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Expires in 5976h with open resolution ambiguity.
Price movement
+3.0pp over the last 24h, now 61¢.
Biggest hourly move: +31.0pp at 00:00 (to 59¢).
Show top 8 of 34 hourly moves
- 00:00 · +31.0pp → 59¢
- 22:00 · -19.0pp → 56¢
- 1d ago · -20.5pp → 56¢
- 2d ago · -19.5pp → 56¢
- 2d ago · -17.5pp → 57¢
- 2d ago · -17.5pp → 57¢
- 2d ago · -18.5pp → 56¢
- 2d ago · -19.5pp → 56¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Arena.AI Leaderboard (arena.ai/leaderboard/text) reaches at least the specified Arena Score on the "Leaderboard" tab for "Coding" by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the "Score" column under the "Text Arena | Coding" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/coding-no-style-control with style control off will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at arena.ai/leaderboard/text. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primarythe first check after it becomes availableLinkTypeAmbiguous wordingConfidenceextracted · low
- Market type
- Binary
- Wide spread (64.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.