Rowdy-Novel
0xb2b98c7cd3e90a01fd2085f47dfeb60e1d2486b4
Wallet digest
Activity score
42/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
78
Open notional
$0.10
Total PnL
$-200.04
Realised
$-10.00
Win rate
29%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 78- YES
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
1 shares @ 48.7¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.10
$-0.40
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 meeting?
333 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 17, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 meeting?
125 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Paige Loud be the Democratic nominee for ME-02?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 9, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- NO
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $725 on June 24?
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
95 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 20, 2026$0.00
$-1.04
- NO
US x Iran meeting by April 15, 2026?
68 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-4.05
- YES
Will the highest temperature in London be 36°C or higher on June 25?
59 shares @ 1.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?
48 shares @ 6.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.00
- NO
Will Steve Witkoff attend the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting?
47 shares @ 16.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-7.78
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony?$0.15Jul 2, 07:45 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?$0.00Jul 2, 07:44 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026?$0.00Jul 2, 07:44 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?$0.20Jul 2, 07:44 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "The Odyssey" score at least 60 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?$0.21Jul 2, 07:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by July 31?$0.38Jul 2, 07:43 UTC
- TRADESELLStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 7?$0.43Jul 2, 07:43 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?$0.42Jul 2, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship?$0.63Jul 2, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship?$0.97Jul 2, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Zelenskyy and Putin not meet before 2027?$0.79Jul 2, 07:42 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$0.60Jul 2, 07:41 UTC
- TRADESELLEthereum all time high by December 31, 2026?$0.78Jul 2, 07:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.12Jul 2, 07:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?$1.65Jul 2, 07:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.5T by December 31?$1.75Jul 2, 07:39 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Pump.fun dip to $0.0010 by December 31, 2026?$3.11Jul 2, 07:39 UTC
- TRADESELLSAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026?$2.44Jul 2, 07:39 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31?$1.25Jul 2, 07:38 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 15?$3.00Jul 2, 07:38 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
36/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
29% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 61/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $4.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 1, 15:21 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 2, 07:45 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.